Cyclone Mocha over Southeast and adjoining Central Bay of Bengal (BoB ) has jumped the timeline. Defying earlier predictions, it has already intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm. The tropical storm is centred around 13.4 Degree North and 88.2 Degree East, about 1000km south-southwest of Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh). Being in a favourable environment, it is likely to strengthen further to a notch higher and become an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm within the next 24hr.
The tropical storm is having symmetrical and deep convection wrapped around the centre of circulation. Central Dense Overcast (CDO) cloud mass is generating strong outflow, both equatorward and poleward, an indication of further intensification. The microwave image of the storm is depicting 'microwave eye' as a manifestation of ongoing concentration. Environmental conditions are favourable with a very warm sea surface (31 degrees) and moderate vertical wind shear (10-15 kts). Significant radial outflow is stepping up further the potential of the storm. Cyclone is currently moving northward, slowly with a speed of 10 kmh and is getting steered around the Sub-Tropical ridge.
Currently, the storm is packed with a windfield, in excess of 120kmh and gusting to 140kmh. Cat-III equivalent, Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm has a wind speed range of 167-221kmh. It is likely to attain this speed in another 24 hours or so. The 'Super Cyclone' equivalent to a Cat-IV hurricane are associated with winds in excess of 221kmh. The heat potential of Central BoB is very high and cyclone Mocha stands a chance to even breach gusty wind speed in excess of 220 kmh while over the sea and brace the most dominant category of a super cyclone.
Off-shore Myanmar, the sea surface is relatively cooler and therefore dropping the heat potential. The cyclone is expected to make landfall on 14th May morning/forenoon hours between Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar). The Arakan Coast, from the Bangladesh border south to the Cape Negrais Peninsula( Myanmar), runs parallel to the mountain ranges of strongly folded rocks dominated by ridges and valleys. This is the likely place of impact of cyclone Mocha. Therefore, before making landfall, Cyclone Mocha may weaken a little because of the lowering of heat potential, the friction of rugged mountainous terrain, entrainment and the increase in vertical wind shear. Notwithstanding, the storm will cross as a very severe cyclone with tremendous damaging potential.
The intensity, spread and ferocity of Mocha may match the catastrophic potential of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, which struck the Irrawaddy Delta ( Central Coast of Myanmar) with unprecedented intensity on 02nd May 2008. The storm will dangerously impact the southern shore of Bangladesh as well, with gale-speed winds and torrential rains. Mocha will weaken rapidly after striking the coast and moving inland. Still, the northeastern states of India, covering Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Upper Assam, in that order will experience adverse weather conditions between the 14th and 15th May 2023. Therefore, we advise to adopt the utmost precautionary measures.
