Updated on May 14, 2023 10:30 AM:
The Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha has now moved in a north-northeast direction at a speed of about 20kmh. Mocha has gained speed and therefore may strike the Myanmar coast couple of hours earlier than estimated. It reached its peak intensity with winds in excess of 220 kmh over the sea when it nearly breached the super cyclone criteria.
Cyclone Mocha is likely to cross the Myanmar coast early afternoon between Teknaf and Sittwe. Mocha will strike with catastrophic potential and is also expected to retain storm status for over 6 hours after crossing the coast, albeit weaken rapidly due to the ruggedness of the terrain.
Updated on May 13, 8:30 PM: Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha may become a Super Cyclone briefly, to head for Bangladesh-Myanmar Border
The Cyclonic Storm Mocha has developed an evident eye, which is circular, sharp and symmetrical. The storm is showing signs of intensification. The sustained winds are nearly reaching 200 kmh.
With still about more than 15 hours for landfall and conducive environmental condition, Mocha stands a chance to brace the status of a 'super cyclone, late tonight. Super cyclone has winds in excess of 221 kmh. Quite likely for Mocha, albeit very briefly.
Published on May 13, 1:00 PM: Cyclone Mocha Intensifies To Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, Heads For Bangladesh-Myanmar Border
As predicted, Cyclone Mocha has further intensified into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm. The storm is centred around 15.3 Degree North and 89.1 Degree East, about 700km south-southwest of Cox's Bazar. It has slowly moved northeastward in the past 6 hours with a speed of 10kmh.
The tropical storm had developed an 'eye' yesterday, indicative of a very strong wind field around the centre. In the latest imagery, the eye is getting cloud filled, slightly ragged and unsymmetrical. Ocean heat has dominated and the warm sea surface has played a major role in its intensification. Environmental conditions are only marginally favourable for any further development.
Cyclone Mocha will track northeastward towards Arakan Coast. It is likely to cross the coast between Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) tomorrow around noon hours. The storm may weaken a little before making landfall due to the intrusion of dry air, increased wind shear and rugged terrain. Still, Mocha will strike the coast as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of about 160 kmh and gusting to 180 kmh. The storm will weaken rapidly after crossing the coastline.