Deep depression over Bay of Bengal (BoB) intensified in to a tropical storm in the wee hours today. The cyclone named ‘Midhili’ is centered around 20.3°N and 88.9°E over northwest BoB. The storm is placed at a reasonably safe distance from the capital city of West Bengal and located about 200km south of Digha. The steering winds are moving the storm northeastward, parallel to coastline of West Bengal and heading for Bangladesh.
Tropical storm is positioned in marginally favourable environmental conditions. The dense clouds mass with deep convection is superimposed over broad low level cyclonic circulation, with a significant outflow. Adequate heat potential has sustained the storm so far but any further growth is unlikely. Rather, the storm may weaken a little with fading support from the peripheral region. Vertical wind shear will increase and sea surface temperature will drop in the close proximity of coastline. Entrainment of dry air and increase of friction may erode the compact structure of storm. Accordingly, the storm may loose its strength slightly before making landfall.
Cyclone will continue moving northeastward to head for Bangladesh coast. Landfall is likely near Kaukata, beach town of Bangladesh, sometime in the late evening today. Some stations of Bangladesh like, Kaukata, Khepupara, Madaripur, Comilla, Feni, Sandwip, Cox’s Bazar, Teknaf will be at risk of gale winds and flooding rains in the next 24 hours. Khepupara received 135.4mm rainfall in the past 24hours. More intense showers will cause inundation of coastal areas towards evening and night. Capital city Dhaka will be at a safe distance and no hazardous weather is expected.
After making landfall in the late evening, storm will weaken to a depression by mid night and further to a low pressure tomorrow morning/forenoon hours. Northeastern states like Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur will get squally weather and heavy rains in the next 24 hours. Extreme southeastern parts of Assam also will get moderate showers, becoming heavy at times. Weather conditions will improve significantly by tomorrow evening and further better day after tomorrow.
This is the second post monsoon cyclone of 2023, hitting Bangladesh. Earlier, very severe cyclonic storm ‘Hamoon’ struck Cox’s Bazar on 24thOctober 2023. In the pre monsoon season, Bangladesh had a close shave as an extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Mocha’ struck Myanmar, near Sittwe on 14th May 2023.