Yesterday's depression over Bay of Bengal (BoB ) has already intensified to a deep depression. It is centred around 8.6deg North and 86.0deg East, about 800km southeast of Chennai. The weather system is about 650 km from Nagapattinam and 500km from Trincomalee( Sri Lanka). The depression has moved with a speed of about 25kmh and expected to maintain for next 24hr, before it slows down later.
The convective activity is getting flared around the system. Cloud bands are getting tightly wrapped around the low level cyclonic circulation. Environmental conditions stay promising for rapid intensification over next 24hr. With low to moderate wind shear( 10-15Kts), warm sea surface temperature (29-30deg), decent outflow and inflow of feeder bands, the potential for intensification to a tropical storm within next 12 hr is high.
Brewing cyclone 'Mandous' has an outside chance of becoming severe, as it moves over southwest BoB, closer to Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast. Thereafter, it is likely to move more of northwest, as dictated by the steering current, and come close to Puducherry and Karaikal by tomorrow morning. Sea surface temperatures show a drop of about 2-3deg Celsius, off the coastline. This amounts to significant decrease in the heat potential which may lead to slight weakening of the storm, off North Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Notwithstanding, absolute caution need to be observed in the entire coastal belt of Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Storms are known to be dubious and defy the norms.
Cyclone alert has been sounded earlier as well and execution need to be done, at the utmost. Hazardous weather conditions are expected over coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh commencing 07th Dec night and rolling over to the subsequent 72hr. Severe thunderstorm with lightning strikes and blinding rains are likely along and off the coast. Persistence of weather system closer to the coast for longer than normal duration is expected. This enhances the risk of being 'highly vulnerable' and to be met 'hands on'.