The Severe Cyclone Maha continues to traverse in Northwest direction away from the Indian coast. The Cyclone might intensify into a Very Severe Cyclone by today evening. By tomorrow evening, we expect this to recurve in opposite direction and move towards India instead, in East-northeast direction towards South Gujarat and North Maharashtra coast.
Severe Cyclone Maha has moved West-Northwestwards during the last 6 hours with a speed of 14 kmph. At 17:30 hrs on November 2 it was near latitude 17 N and 67.3 E. Geographically it is located 520 km South-southwest of Veraval and 540 km South-southwest of Diu.
According to the present models, the Cyclone will start weakening after curvature, as it is expected to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures as well as moderate vertical wind shear. So, by November 5 it will once again weaken into a Severe Cyclone. Thereafter, it will weaken further and will become a Cyclonic Storm before reaching the coast. There are slight chances that the Cyclone might even degenerate into a Deep Depression while it makes a landfall.
We expect this Cyclone to reach South Gujarat coast around the evening of November 6 or the morning of November 7. Whether it will make a landfall over Gujarat as a Cyclone or a Deep Depression is still being speculated. If it comes down over land as a Cyclone the impact will be worse with very rough sea conditions and massive rains.
One thing is for sure that when the system touches down Gujarat coast, whether as a Cyclone or as a Deep Depression, it is sure to bring strong winds and massive sea surge. Winds may reach 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph. Wave height will also be high. So, potential damage is expected. Skymet will keep updating the exact area of impact as well as its intensity as the Cyclone’s path becomes clearer over time.
Image Credits – India Today
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