As had been forecast by Skymet, Cyclone Maha has already recurved towards Gujarat coast. The Very Severe Cyclonic storm Maha at present lies over East-central and adjoining West-central Arabian Sea. The system moved eastwards with a speed of 14 kmph during past 6 hours. At 23:30 hrs IST as of 05th November, 2019 the system lies centered at, the over East-central & adjoining West-central Arabian Sea near latitude 19.8°N and longitude 64.9°E, about 540 km west-southwest of Porbandar (Gujarat), 580 km west-southwest of Veraval (Gujarat) and 630 km west-southwest of Diu.
Now the system is likely to move East-northeastwards with rapid weakening. As it will move further Eastwards it will encounter lower sea surface temperatures as well as increasing vertical wind shear. Therefore, we expect it to rapidly start degenerating into a Severe Cyclone, then Cyclone, a Deep Depression. Before reaching the coast, it may further weaken into a Depression.
The system might make a landfall over Gujarat coast around Diu as a Depression. So, the threat to Gujarat coast has been reduced.
However, potential damage with strong winds is still likely over the coastal areas. Strong winds with a speed of around 50 to 60 km gusting to 70-80 Kmph are expected to blow over the region.
Storm surge will also be felt in the form of high-rise tides. Wave heights might be around 15 ft high. So, precaution must be in place to counter such a situation.
Image Credits – Daily Mail
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