Southwest Monsoon has come to an end and it bid adieu on the note of Cyclone Daye, which was persisting for a short duration and caused heavy rainfall over many parts of the country. Usually cyclones do not develop during the Monsoon season.
Now, as the season has come to an end, cyclones become more frequent on both sides including the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal with higher frequency over the latter, but the severity is the same.
Moreover, cyclones in the Arabian Sea have a longer sea travel as compared to the Bay of Bengal which makes them more severe at times.
Currently, rapid changes are taking place in terms of winds and they have become easterlies over the southern parts which is a sign of the changeover period. In fact, the changeover has come up slightly earlier this time.
Co features of Northeast monsoon appear in the second half of October and Northeast monsoon finally arrives around October 20th, which is considered as the average date.
The ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) at present is already in close proximity of the equator which gives a push for more frequent systems.
Currently, there are several embedded cyclonic circulations persisting over the ITCZ which have been giving rains over southern parts of the country.
There are enough indications that a system is expected to come up in Southeast Arabian Sea around 5th of October. This system is expected to become more marked and become a depression and thereafter may even become a deep depression. Not only this, the possibility of this system converting into the first cyclone of this post Monsoon season cannot be ruled out. If a cyclone comes up, it will be named as Luban which is a name given by Oman.
As it looks, the system is expected to come up in the lower latitude and will go for Yemen and Oman following a west-northwest direction. The system is expected to cause extremely heavy showers over parts of Kerala between October 5 and 8. Parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry should also watch out for an upcoming system in the Bay along with this one, which may give heavy rainfall activity over these areas.
Moreover, as October is the rainiest month for the state of Kerala, enough precautions should be taken for the upcoming rains is it look likes there may be another deluge like situation which the state has already gone through during the month of August.
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