Cyclone Lehar: Wind speeds, time at sea would make the difference

Andhra Pradesh coast is once again bracing up for another tropical storm- Cyclone Lehar. After witnessing heavy rain with wind speeds of 100 kmph due to Cyclone Helen, wrath of intense rain and winds of more than 120 kmph associated with Cyclone Lehar could spell more trouble for coastal areas. Strong winds could bring much higher sea waves than Cyclone Helen that would lead to flooding and large scale evacuations in low lying areas.

Cyclone Helen's proximity to land for two days did not let it become as destructive as Cyclone Phailin. But Cyclone Lehar, which is at a distance of 500 km from Kakinada is still over the sea. The sea surface temperature of around 28-29 degrees at the storms current location is conducive for maintaining the strength of the Cyclone Lehar and its winds, thus its landfall would be more intense than that of Helen.

Why Cyclone Lehar may lose its intensity

Weakening of such storms in seas depends on their movement towards higher latitudes, as waters in higher latitudes are colder than the lower latitudes. Cold sea waters do not feed the same amount of moisture crucial for cloud formation as warm waters do. 

Cyclone Lehar is located at latitude 14 ⁰N and 87⁰E, and in all probability its movement will continue to remain the same as west-northwestwards to defy the possibility of its entrance into to the cold waters of North Bay of Bengal. But if the sea surface temperature near the coast is less than 26.5 degrees then there is possibility that the tropical storm may lose its strength before hitting the land.

Skymetweather.com is closely tracking the path of Cyclone Lehar and will keep you posted on Facebook and Twitter