As expected, depression in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) rapidly intensified in to a deep depression and further to a tropical storm 'Jawad'. The cyclone is centred around 14.5 degree N and 88 degree E, about 450 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam.
The weather system has moved with a speed of about 25kmh and head towards coastline of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. The storm is sailing over the deep ocean under favorable environmental conditions, with sufficient heat energy (SST-29deg) from the sea surface and low to medium vertical wind shear.
Tomorrow morning Cyclone Jawad will move more of northward initially and northeast later. It will also intensify to a severe cyclonic storm, albeit marginal, by tomorrow afternoon, with winds in excess of 90kmh. By tomorrow evening, the storm will reach abeam Visakhapatnam and start recurving.
Thereafter, stormy mayhem conditions are expected over coastline of North Andhra Pradesh to South Odisha. Violent winds and torrential rains are expected to lash Kakinada, Tuni, Visakhapatnam, Srikakulam, Vizianagram, Pathpatnam, Jhadupudi, Ganjam, Gajapati and Chatrapur. This entire belt will be at extreme risk of getting battered with the deadly combination of gale winds and blustering rains.
While recurving, the storm is likely to breach the coastline between Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and Gopalpur (Odisha) by 05th Dec morning. However, proximity of land may weaken the storm due to friction and entrainment. The entire stretch of Odisha will be traversed by the cyclonic storm on 5th Dec. Some of the coastal towns like Gopalpur, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Bhubaneswar, Balasore and Baripada will be at high risk of getting bashed by inclement weather conditions.
Later on this day, the weakened storm will reach border areas and cross over to Gangetic West Bengal as Depression. Digha, Contai, Midnapore and capital city Kolkata may also get moderate to heavy rains on 6th Dec. General improvement in this area is expected on 06th and 7th Dec when the rain belt shifts to Bangladesh and Northeast India.