Cyclone Gulab likely to become a storm again in Arabian Sea, heading for Oman

In quick succession after cyclone Gulab, another tropical storm is expected to come up over Northeast Arabian Sea shortly.  This cyclone will be a sequel of ‘Gulab’ which has weakened after crossing the East Coast ( Andhra Pradesh) on 26^thSeptember.

The remnant of cyclone Gulab is now marked as a well marked low pressure area over Marathwada and adjoining region. The weather system has given fairly widespread heavy rains over Telangana, Vidarbha, Marathwada and North Interior Karnataka during the last 24hr.

The well marked low pressure area is likely to move nearly westward  and move to Saurashtra across Gulf of Cambay. This water body and proximity of Arabian Sea will recharge the remnant of cyclone Gulab. There is likelihood of this low pressure area strengthening in to a depression over Saurashtra and Gulf of Cambay in the next 48hr. 

While moving westward, this weather system will enter Northeast Arabian Sea and has a strong possibility to regenerate in to a deep depression first and intensify to a tropical storm rapidly  thereafter. Formation of cyclone is subject to persistence of favorable environmental conditions. Sea surface temperature is warm enough to grow the system.

However, wind shear and entrainment remain the two impediments which may possibly be balanced out with the available heat potential and deep moist layer.  Likely formation of another storm will be under observation for the next 24hr.

Likely storm will be hosted over the Northeast Arabian Sea on 30^thSep during late night or 01^stOct 2021.  The storm will remain over the open waters of North Arabian Sea for 24hr gaining force.  In the subsequent 24hr, the storm is expected to enter  Gulf of Oman with coastline of Oman within its striking range.  

The weather system is expected to travel entire length of Gulf and even reach Persian Gulf thereafter.  Weather condition along the coastline on either side of the system will get impacted with squally winds and copious rains. Coastal areas of Pakistan and Iran on the starboard side and Oman and UAE on the port side will bear the brunt of the storm between 01^st and 04^thOctober 2021.