The Cyclonic Disturbances is brewing in Bay of Bengal almost over one week now. It started off as a Cyclonic Circulation over extreme Southeast Bay of Bengal. It then became a depression on November 10 and intensified into a Deep Depression on November 11. The system further strengthened into a Cyclonic Storm on November 11 itself. It was then named as, ‘Gaja.’
Since last three days, the system has been showing slow pace though it is retaining its strength of Cyclonic Storm and is shifting westwards. As per Skymet Weathermen, it’s a little unusual characteristic to be witnessed. The system has been in open waters amidst all favorable conditions but still it is a mild Cyclonic Storm. It is maintaining its slow pace and if not drifting much.
The overall wind field in the vicinity of the system is not smooth, it is loitering in a perturbed wind field. The system is hanging around with a mild intensity. As of now, the system is centered around 13° North and 85° East which is about 500kms east of Chennai.
However, the numerical models are not finding any concrete consensus on its movement. The consensus has diverse opinions, but one thing is common that the system is bound to shift west south-west direction.
As per Skymet, if any system moves in southwards direction, it tends to lose it’s strength and gets weakened. The movement/direction of any system carries a lot of weightage.
However, this system is fighting against all odds. All the other factors like moisture, temperature, wind speed is in favor of this system. With the help of other favourable factors, the system might strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm anytime soon. The cloud configuration and its peripherals are indicating that system will intensify into a severe cyclonic storm, but this won’t be for a long duration.
The system will lose it’s latitudes once it shifts in west south-west direction.
In the coming 24 hours, the system will continue to move in west south-west direction and will be in the proximity of Tamil Nadu Coast. Before making a landfall, we expect the severe cyclone storm to weaken substantially. The system may cross the coast as a depression between Cuddalore and Pamban.
However, as per the experts even the weaken system will have the potential to give heavy to very rainfall with a windspeed of 50-60 km/hr. Heavy rains with strong winds is considered as a deadly combination to cause damage. Therefore, we still alert the inhabitants of the coastal, central and south Tamil Nadu.
After the landfall, the system will have a very small stretch of land, therefore it will have all the chances to emerge on the other side of the coast in the Arabian Sea. Another system is trailing behind which will give spells in the state of Tamil Nadu.
Image Credit: Himawari Real-Time Image
Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com
