The deep depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) is centered around 8.5°N and 82.3°E, 100km east abeam Trincomalee of Sri Lanka. It is about 550 km south-southeast of Chennai. The deep depression is moving north-northwest with a speed of about 10km/h. It is skirting the Sri Lankan coast but remains in the close proximity to the northeastern parts. The weather system will intensify further to a cyclonic storm anytime soon and reach an earshot distance from the North Tamil Nadu coast by this evening. Thereafter, the storm will track more of northward at a very close range from the shore.
The satellite imagery manifests deep and curved convective banding, consolidating around the low-level cyclonic circulation. The system is located over a favourable environment for further development with good upper-level divergence, fairly warm sea surface temperatures, adequate vorticity and low to moderate vertical wind shear. Models are in broad agreement, placing good confidence for further strengthening of this system. The potential for the development of a tropical cyclone in the next 12 hours remains high. The negative aspects are the cooler temperatures close to the coast and the intrusion of dry air due to the land effect.
The deep depression has deluged parts of Sri Lanka. Jaffna, Vavuniya, Mullaittivu and Batticaloa have received extremely heavy rainfall, amounting to 150-200mm. Even the capital city Colombo has recorded over 100mm rainfall in the past 24 hours. More downpour is likely. Coastal parts of Tamil Nadu also have received heavy rainfall in the past 24 hours. The chief amounts of rainfall being: Cuddalore-97mm, Karaikal-96mm, Atiramapattinam -81mm and Parangipettai-68mm. Meenambakkam and Nungambakkam also recorded moderate rainfall of 60mm and 55mm, respectively.
The cyclonic storm will be named as ‘Fengal’, as suggested by the member country Saudi Arabia. The storm will be pronounced as ‘Feinjal’. There is an anticyclone on either side of the coast at the steering levels of the storm. Therefore, the storm will move more of northward, very slowly. It will keep the coastline on its left but very close. The cyclone will reach within a whisker distance, between Puducherry-Tambaram- Chennai on the night of 29th Nov. The orientation of the coastline of South Coastal Andhra Pradesh changes orientation abruptly to northeast-southwest. Therefore, the landfall time and place of the storm cannot be precisely predicted at this point of time. It will need observation for another 24 hours. One thing is sure that the cyclone will either fire the south coastal parts of Andhra Pradesh or it may even brace the coastline, very scarcely. In such a scenario, the entire coastline of Andhra Pradesh and the south coastal parts of Odisha will bear the risk of heavy rainfall.
