The severe cyclonic storm Chapala has made landfall in Yemen today. According to US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall was near 13.9 N, 49.0 E. Possibility of potential flooding further inland due to heavy rain can not be ruled out.
The powerful cyclone Chapala, which is likely to make a landfall in next 24 to 48 hours, has already started to wreak havoc in Yemeni waters. The strongest cyclone so far in the Arabian Sea has destroyed more than 100 homes on the island of Socotra and affected property along the coastline.
As it rapidly moves towards Yemen, the cyclone is expected to take a path closer to city of Mukalla. Flooding and torrential rain is forecast for Mukalla as the cyclone is likely to dump rainfall which will be seven times more than the average yearly rainfall of 70mm.
Yemen that is a typically arid is feared to face catastrophic flooding. The forecast rainfall would represent an extremely unusual event for the area and it is highly unlikely that the natural water courses and drainage systems would be able to cope with this amount of rain.
Updated on November 1, 2015: Extremely severe cyclonic storm Chapala to make landfall over Yemen
Extreme cyclonic storm Chapala is now expected to weaken and make a very rare landfall over Yemen in the next 24 hours to 48 hours.
The storm will move towards sea port of Mukalla in Yemen and is expected to bring flooding rain, thunderstorms and strong winds putting about 3,00,000 people in danger.
The strongest cyclone in the Arabian Sea is expected to dump about 2 years worth of rain over the region in just a span of a day or two. Furthermore, it will weaken but has the strength to create considerable damage.
Very severe cyclonic storm Chapala has further gained more strength and has turned into extremely severe cyclonic storm.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the weather system is also expected to turn into super cyclonic storm during next 24 to 36 hours.
The system is presently centered at 13.9°N and 59.6°E, around 680 km east-southeast of Salalah, Oman. It will continue to move westwards and is likely to make landfall over Oman coast by November 02.
However Skymet predicts, system will weaken before hitting the coast as it will start loosing strength due to its interaction with dry air.
Severe Cyclonic storm Chapala has intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and is expected to further intensify into an extremely severe cyclonic storm. It is moving in a westerly direction with a slow pace of 6 kmph. On 30th October, it was 1290 km west-southwest of Mumbai and 880 km eastsoutheast of Salalah, Oman. It is expected to make landfall near north Yemen by the night of November 2 as a severe cyclonic storm.
Cyclone Chapala is not likely to give rain over West coast of India as it is moving away from the Indian coast. However, it will certainly lead to scattered cloud over Maharashtra and Gujarat. As a result, moderate winds are expected over the coastal areas of these states.
Cyclonic storm Chapala is the first tropical storm of the post-Monsoon season formed in the Indian seas. After sustaining strength of depression for a short span, the system in the Arabian Sea intensified into a deep depression on Wednesday and then into a cyclonic storm in quick succession on early Thursday morning.
The system is presently marked over east-central and adjoining west-central Arabian Sea. It is centered over 13.7°N and 64.3°E, around 1080 km southwest of Mumbai and 1150 km east of Salalah, Oman.
At present, Chapala is moving at a slow pace of 10 kmph in north-northwest direction. As the system will be now travelling in the open waters for a longer time, it is expected to intensify even into a severe cyclonic circulation as well.
As per meteorologists at Skymet, weather systems when travelling over the open waters get ample amount of moisture from sea that allows it to gather more strength.
Also read: What is a cyclone?
Thereafter, the system is expected to move in west-northwest direction towards Oman coast. Going by the statistics, it is seen that the weather systems developing in South or central Arabian Sea generally travels in northwest direction. But sometimes, after reaching latitude of 16°N or 17°N, they re-curve in northeasterly direction towards Indian coast of Gujarat or Maharashtra.
As of now, satellite images are indicating that it is highly unlikely for the system to recurve. Thus, we do not perceive any threat to Indian coast. However, presence of system in Arabian Sea will increase clouding and wind speed over the coastal areas of Maharashtra and Gujarat.
Till now, no cyclonic circulation had come in the Indian seas, which is supposed to be a rare event. In last 15 years, only 2009 did not witness any cyclonic storm.