Extremely severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy has moved nearly northward in the past 6 hours. It is centred around 19.4°N and 67.7°E, about 450km south-southwest of Naliya (Kutch) and 600km south of Karachi (Pakistan). The storm is moving extremely slow with barely 5kmh and is unlikely to speed up, till it remains in the proximity of a sub-tropical ridge. It is expected to move northward for another 24hr and thereafter change course to the north-northeast, albeit slowly and get steered towards Indo -Pak border to make landfall on 15th June. It is expected to move very slowly before the landfall and therefore increase the duration of inclement weather conditions.
CDO (cloud-dense overcast) of the storm is circular in shape with curved banding but slightly ragged. The cloud-top temperatures have started warming, indicating that it may not sustain the power of an extremely severe cyclonic storm for more than 18hr. Once the storm crosses abeam Dwarka, keeping it to its right by 150km, it will track more of the northeast and head for the border towns of Naliya and Jakhau in Kutch and Karachi port of Pakistan. Though, the entrainment of dry desert air from Pakistan before the landfall will weaken the cyclone but it will still hold typhoon strength at the time of landfall on 15th June at noon hours. It will weaken rapidly after crossing the coast, getting steered towards West Rajasthan. The severity of the weather is expected to be more towards Pakistan than Gujarat.
Since cyclones are notorious for inflicting last-minute changes in the track, timelines and intensity, it is advisable to move vulnerable people to safe shelters. A deadly combination of blinding rains and whistling winds inflicts heavy damage. Precious assets of military aeroplanes need to be evacuated from Naliya to safer locations. In addition to the tidal waves with the storm, astronomical tides will raise the bar further. Flooding and inundation of coastal belts come as a serious hazard to communication and connectivity. Utmost caution must be observed and safety measures completed in the available window until 14th June.
