Tropical storm Asna has moved nearly westward with a speed of about 10kmh, during the last 6 hours. It is centred around 23.6 degrees North and 65.7 degrees East, over the Northeast Arabian Sea, roughly 300 km west of Abeam Naliya (Gujarat). It is likely to continue moving westward for another 12 hours and change course thereafter, to west-southwest towards Oman Coast. It is located at an absolutely safe distance from the Gujarat coast and its track will shift away from the Makran Coast of Pakistan and Iran, as well.
The storm is positioned in a marginally favourable environment. The sea surface is fairly warm with sufficient heat potential and the vertical wind shear is moderate. Therefore, the storm may strengthen slightly and the wind speed will increase from 80 km to 90 km, in the inner periphery, around the center. As it moves further, the intrusion of dry air and increase of vertical wind shear, together, will start weakening the system tomorrow morning onwards. It is expected to become a deep depression/ depression by the day after tomorrow.
As the storm weakens and moves west-southwest, it will reach in the proximity of Oman Coast, on 02 Sep 2024. Close to the coast of Oman, the storm will enter unfavourable environmental conditions. Drop in sea surface temperature, increase of vertical wind shear, entrainment of dry air and frictional force will diffuse the storm, much before making landfall. However, the storms are known for defying the timelines, track and intensity and therefore, utmost caution needs to be exercised, till the threat is over.
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