The deep depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal has moved in a west-Northwest direction and intensified into a cyclone Asani. At 5:30 hours today on May 8, it was over Southeast Bay of Bengal near the latitude of 11 degrees North and 89-degree East. About 450 km West-Northwest of car Nicobar, 380 km west of Port Blair, 970 km Southeast of Visakhapatnam. It will move in the Northwest direction and may intensify into a severe cyclone. It will continue to move in the Northwest direction until the 10th of May evening and reach West Central and adjoining the northwest Bay of Bengal near North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coast. Thereafter, it is expected to recurve in a north-northeast direction towards the northwest Bay of Bengal.
Sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear are favorable for the intensification of cyclones. Sea surface temperatures are 30-31degrees, and vertical wind shear is moderate 15-20 Kts. After reaching the Northwest Bay of Bengal the sea surface temperatures will start reducing and vertical wind share will also increase. Moreover, dry Northwesterly winds will also enter the weather system leading to the weakening of cyclone. We expect the cyclone Asani to get weakened into a deep depression over the northwest Bay of Bengal south of Bangladesh by the early morning of May 13.
There may be light to moderate rain with a few heavy spells over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha coast, Gangetic West Bengal, South Bangladesh, and northeast India on May 8th and 9th. Rain and thundershower to increase over north Orissa coast Gangetic West Bengal Bangladesh and Northeast India between May 10 and 12.
We do not expect the cyclone to make landfall over the east coast of India. Therefore, the extent of damage will be less. But we cannot lower our guards as heavy rain associated with strong winds in the range of 60-70 Kmph gusting to 80 Kmph cannot be ruled out from North Andhra Pradesh to Gangetic West Bengal coast.