Cyclone Asani Brews, No Direct Hit For Bay Islands, Myanmar On Tenterhooks

Freak weather system over Andaman Sea, continue to grow, inching its grade to a possible tropical storm, shortly. Presently, as a deep depression, lies centered around 12.2°N and 94.5°E, about 120km northeast of Port Blair.  Gusty winds to the tune of 28-32 knots, accompany the storm with heavy to very heavy rains lashing the area. The cyclone is sparing a direct hit for the Bay Islands and heading nearly northward, targeting Myanmar coast.  Winds in excess of 33 knots, while over seas qualify these systems to be upgraded to cyclonic storm.

Under favorable environmental conditions with sufficing heat potential and absence of ruinous wind shear, the deep depression is likely to become a cyclonic storm, albeit for a short duration. As the storm moves northward towards Gulf of Martaban,  the proximity  of Arakan coast may impede its fury, before ingressing the shoreline.  After achieving storm status,  cyclone ‘Asani’ as named by Sri Lanka, may run parallel to the coast between Bassein and Akyab ( both Myanmar).  The storm will also miss any direct impact on port city of Yangon, by keeping the city to the right, staying at a safe distance.  However, the inclement weather conditions are expected, along and off shore, between 21^st March (night) till 23^rdMar (morning).

Asani is going to be the only storm coming so close to the Myanmar coast during March.  Tropical storms remain alien to this country in the Bay of Bengal basin, during the opening month of pre monsoon season.  The last storm which came closest to the Arakan coast and Gulf of Martaban during March, was in the year 2000. However, the storm got diffused over the  open waters of North Andaman Sea and East Central Bay of Bengal at a distance of over 400km from  Bassein.

Andaman Islands, including Port Blair will face very rough weather over land and sea, both till late evening of 21^stMarch.  Worst will get over by mid night on 21^stMar as the storm heads further northward towards Myanmar. Bangladesh will escape the ferocity of storm to a large extent.  The storm will not impact at all, the weather conditions along and off Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal.