Updated on May 18, 2020 5:30 PM IST: Extremely Severe Cyclone Amphan intensifies to Super Cyclonic Storm
The Super Cyclone Amphan is moving over west-central and adjoining central parts of the South Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.7°N and longitude 86.2 °E. Super Cyclonic Storm Amphan is about 730 km nearly south of Paradip (Odisha), 890 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) and 1010 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). It is very likely to move nearly northwards for some more time and then north-northeastwards across the northwest Bay of Bengal and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) during the Afternoon / Evening of 20th May 2020 as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 165-175 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.
Updated on May 18, 2020 9:30 AM IST:
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Amphan has rapidly intensified into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm and is centered over central and adjoining South Bay of Bengal, around 13Nand 86E. The cyclone is moving north and intensifying further. Clearly marked EYE with dimensions of about 20km diameter is proving it might. The cyclone will remain in the open and deep waters of Bay of Bengal under favorable environmental conditions.
Updated on May 18, 2020 8:00 AM IST:
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, Amphan is over the central Bay of Bengal and is centered around 13N and 86.2E, about 800km south of Paradip and 950km SSW of Digha. The storm has moved nearly northward in the last 12 hours with a speed of about 12kmph. Cyclone Amphan is likely to move NNE now and also intensify into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm in the next about six hours. The storm has developed a very compact and clearly marked EYE, as a mark of its strength. The storm is packed with winds of 150kmph and gusting to 170kmph. The cyclone is likely to cross the West Bengal-Bangladesh border between Digha and Hatia on 20th May.
Updated on May 17, 2020 6:00 PM IST:
Cyclone Amphan has rapidly intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS). The storm is now centered around 11.6N and 86E, about 950 km south of Paradip and1250 km SSW of Kolkata. It will be moving nearly north for some time and then recurve to move northeast. Likely to intensify further to Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) in the next 24hr. The cyclone is likely to make landfall on 20th May, in the bordering area of West Bengal and Bangladesh.
Updated on May 17, 2020 12:30 PM IST: Cyclone Amphan intensified to severe cyclonic storm
Cyclone Amphan has intensified to a severe cyclonic storm over the west central Bay of Bengal. It has moved slowly northwest in the past 12 hours and is centered about 1250 km SSW (southsouthwest) of Kolkata and 950km south of Paradip. The storm will start moving northward initially and then NNE (northnortheast). Likely to become Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) by today evening and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm(ESCS) in the subsequent 24 hours. It is likely to make landfall on the 20th May morning, close to West Bengal - Bangladesh border. Adverse weather conditions with high velocity winds more than 120 kmph and extremely heavy rains are likely along and off Odisha-West Bengal coast between 18th and 20th May. Red Alert is sounded for the two states to observe utmost safety and precautions.
Updated on May 16, 2020 6:00 PM IST: Depression in Bay of Bengal intensified to Deep Depression
The deep depression in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a cyclonic storm. The maiden cyclone, cyclone Amphan, of this season is centered around 10.5N and 86.4E, about 650km ESE (East South East) of Chennai. The system remains in favorable environmental conditions and will shortly intensify further to a severe cyclonic storm.
Landfall is expected on May 19th late night or 20th morning, Southeast of Kolkata, subject to revision. The storm will have catastrophic damaging potential with extremely heavy rains and high-velocity winds, along with and off the coast of Odisha and West Bengal.
Updated on May 16, 2020 11:30 AM IST: Depression in Bay of Bengal intensified to Deep Depression
The depression in the Bay of Bengal has intensified to a deep depression, centered around 10.5N and 86.8E. The system continues to be in favorable environment and is likely to burgeon to a significant cyclone in the next few hours, earlier than expected. The deep depression is presently located about 850km SSE of Visakhapatnam and 1100 km south of Paradip, Odisha. The system will move northwest and reach abeam Chennai, keeping a safe distance of about 600km by this evening, as a developed cyclonic storm. Thereafter, it is likely to move northward and intensify to a severe cyclonic storm in the subsequent 24 hours.
Updated on May 14, 2020 1:45 PM IST:
The first cyclone of this season in the Indian Seas is few knocks away. Existing low pressure area in the southeast Bay of Bengal is well marked and is poised to become 'depression' within next 24 hours. The system is in favorable environment for intensification to a cyclonic storm latest by 16th May. Though the cyclone will take a recurvature northward while over the westcentral Bay of Bengal, abeam Chennai, but the orientation of our coastline will engage the storm to make a landfall, tentatively around 18-19th May. More confident forecast can be expected after another 24 hours.
Updated on May 12, 2020 7:15 PM IST:
The meteorological conditions in the southeast Bay of Bengal are furthering significant development within the next few days. The cloud configuration and the wind field is indicating likely formation of a low-pressure area over the Andaman Sea and the southeast Bay of Bengal in the next 24-36 hours. MJO is shifting closer again to be in phase 2 & 3 over the Indian Ocean from 12th to 18th May. Though the amplitude will be marginal but still good enough to enhance the convective activity over the Bay of Bengal during this period. The turbulent conditions over the region are making the data assimilation for weather models difficult. There is consensus about likely cyclogenesis in this area from 15th May onward, however, the diversity among the most numerical models still remains about the location, track, and severity of the system. Accordingly, the entire region is kept under observation for any further development.
Updated on May 10, 2020 4:30 PM IST:
The cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea persists. It appears more organized and the convective cloud cluster is also shaping up around this feature. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of about 31 degrees carries sufficient heat potential. But the gain from the SST is getting erased by moderate wind shear and there is nil support from the MJO which is languishing far from the area of action. However, there is no existential threat and the conditions look good towards formation of a low pressure area in the next 72 hours. Weather models diversity remains for its further intensification, area and track. In pursuant of favorable environmental conditions, the area is kept under observation over the next 03 days for any further development.
Updated on May 08, 2020 8:30 PM IST:
The cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal persists and is now marked over South Andaman Sea and adjacent waters of Sumatra Island. Warm and moist air continue to swirl around the area filled with large size convective clouds. Weather models continue to be diverse with prospects of any significant development. Though none of them suggest any immediate cyclogenesis over the region but few of them indicate formation of Low Pressure within a week over South and southwest Bay of Bengal. With environmental conditions still favorable, the area is kept under observation for the next 3 days.
Updated on May 07, 2020 8:30 PM IST:
The cyclonic circulation, as a remnant of an erstwhile low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal persists. A fresh vortex as a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the southwest Bay of Bengal in the next 48 hours. Under the combined influence of these two systems, a well-marked cyclonic circulation is most likely over the South Bay of Bengal around 11th May. Chances of its further development remain good. There is diversity amongst various weather models about its intensification and track. Therefore, the region is kept under observation for the next 3-4 days.
Updated on May 06, 2020 5:45 PM IST:
The low pressure area persisting for the last few days over the Andaman Sea and Southeast Bay of Bengal has weakened now. However, the cyclonic circulation continues to be marked in the same region. The equatorial belt in the proximity of this systems seems to become active. ITCZ is marked from Sumatra to Maldives across equatorial Indian Ocean. There are indications of another vortex (cyclonic circulation) forming over the Southwest Bay, off Sri Lanka coast in the next 48 hours. The combined influence of these two could give rise to a significant weather system. The complete region, therefore, remains under observations over the next 4-5 days for any further development.
Updated on May 05, 2020 9:00 PM IST:
The low pressure area persists over the South Andaman Sea and the adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal. There is no change in the status of this weather system. The MJO has already moved away from the Indian Ocean and therefore will not support its intensification. Most of the weather models also are not suggesting any further strengthening in the next 3-4 days. Following this, some changes are likely and so the region is kept under observational watch for the next 5 days for any further development.
Updated on May 04, 2020 6:30 PM IST:
Low pressure area over the South Andaman Sea and the Southeast Bay of Bengal persists. The system is turning and twisting over the same region in the last 24 hours. There are no signs of immediate intensification or deflation as well. The system is likely to hold ground for the next 72 hours, though with a slight and gradual shift northwestward. More it stays over the sea with signs of persistence, better are the chances for its subsequent strengthening. The whole area is under observational watch for any further development.
Updated on May 03, 2020 5:00 PM IST:
The low pressure area over the Southeast Bay of Bengal and the South Andaman Sea persists. The system has neither shown any significant movement and nor any intensification in the past 24 hours. In the meantime, MJO's amplitude is reducing as well as shifting shortly to phase 5 and 6 away from Indian Ocean. The vertical wind shear has marginally increased over the area of low pressure. Sea Surface Temperature continues to be adequately warm. Under these conditions, no major changes are expected in the next 72 hours. However, the region remains favorable for significant development thereafter.
Updated on May 02, 2020 5:00 PM IST:
The low-pressure area persists in the Southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. It is likely to become well marked in the next 36-48 hours. The intensification is going to be slow and the weather system is going to remain practically stationary. Environmental conditions remain conducive for reorganization and possible Depression in the subsequent 48 hours. The diversity of weather models in quantifying intensification of the system is quite large. The entire area of influence needs to be kept under observation for any further development.
Updated on May 01, 2020 10:00 AM IST:
The first likely cyclone, Amphan, of the season continues to be inceptive, far in the open waters of Bay of Bengal. The system earlier was showing signs of rapid intensification and quick movement to cross over to Myanmar taking a short cut across North Andaman Sea. True to their character of defying assessments and predictions, the maiden cyclone keeps the region on tenterhooks for likely development of 'Low Pressure' anytime soon.
A cyclonic circulation is marked over extreme Southeast Bay and South Andaman Sea and is slated to be organized further and turn in to a low-pressure area over the same region in the next 36-48 hours. It is likely to move northwestward and intensify to a depression in the subsequent 48 hours. The ocean parameters continue to be favorable for its strengthening while over the East-central Bay and neighborhood. However, there is no consensus amongst the weather model over the timelines, area, and level of intensification. The probability of this system turning in to cyclone Amphan remains good but the track and stay over the oceanic water is inconclusive. The broader agreement for its extended stay over open waters, sluggish movement, slow and incremental intensification is making the prediction of landfall place and time difficult.
The current situation with cyclonic circulation over Southeast Bay and likely formation of a low-pressure area is conducive for heavy rains and strong winds over the chain of islands, particularly the Little Nicobar and Great Nicobar in the next 48 hours.