Updated on May 18, 2020 5:30 PM IST: Extremely Severe Cyclone Amphan intensifies to Super Cyclonic Storm
The Super Cyclone Amphan is moving over west-central and adjoining central parts of the South Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.7°N and longitude 86.2 °E. Super Cyclonic Storm Amphan is about 730 km nearly south of Paradip (Odisha), 890 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) and 1010 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). It is very likely to move nearly northwards for some more time and then north-northeastwards across the northwest Bay of Bengal and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) during the Afternoon / Evening of 20th May 2020 as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 165-175 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.
Updated on May 18, 2020 5:30 PM IST: Extremely Severe Cyclone Amphan intensifies to Super Cyclonic Storm
The Super Cyclone Amphan is moving over west-central and adjoining central parts of the South Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.7°N and longitude 86.2 °E. Super Cyclonic Storm Amphan is about 730 km nearly south of Paradip (Odisha), 890 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) and 1010 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). It is very likely to move nearly northwards for some more time and then north-northeastwards across the northwest Bay of Bengal and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) during the Afternoon / Evening of 20th May 2020 as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 165-175 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.
Updated on May 18, 2020 9:30 AM IST:
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Amphan has rapidly intensified into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm and is centered over central and adjoining South Bay of Bengal, around 13Nand 86E. The cyclone is moving north and intensifying further. Clearly marked EYE with dimensions of about 20km diameter is proving it might. The cyclone will remain in the open and deep waters of Bay of Bengal under favorable environmental conditions.
Updated on May 18, 2020 8:00 AM IST:
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, Amphan is over the central Bay of Bengal and is centered around 13N and 86.2E, about 800km south of Paradip and 950km SSW of Digha. The storm has moved nearly northward in the last 12 hours with a speed of about 12kmph. Cyclone Amphan is likely to move NNE now and also intensify into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm in the next about six hours. The storm has developed a very compact and clearly marked EYE, as a mark of its strength. The storm is packed with winds of 150kmph and gusting to 170kmph. The cyclone is likely to cross the West Bengal-Bangladesh border between Digha and Hatia on 20th May.
Updated on May 17, 2020 6:00 PM IST:
Cyclone Amphan has rapidly intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS). The storm is now centered around 11.6N and 86E, about 950 km south of Paradip and1250 km SSW of Kolkata. It will be moving nearly north for some time and then recurve to move northeast. Likely to intensify further to Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) in the next 24hr. The cyclone is likely to make landfall on 20th May, in the bordering area of West Bengal and Bangladesh.
Updated on May 17, 2020 12:30 PM IST: Cyclone Amphan intensified to severe cyclonic storm
Cyclone Amphan has intensified to a severe cyclonic storm over the west central Bay of Bengal. It has moved slowly northwest in the past 12 hours and is centered about 1250 km SSW (southsouthwest) of Kolkata and 950km south of Paradip. The storm will start moving northward initially and then NNE (northnortheast). Likely to become Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) by today evening and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm(ESCS) in the subsequent 24 hours. It is likely to make landfall on the 20th May morning, close to West Bengal - Bangladesh border. Adverse weather conditions with high velocity winds more than 120 kmph and extremely heavy rains are likely along and off Odisha-West Bengal coast between 18th and 20th May. Red Alert is sounded for the two states to observe utmost safety and precautions.
Updated on May 17, 2020 10:00 AM IST: Cyclone Amphan to intensify to severe cyclone soon
The tropical cyclone Amphan is near latitude 11.2 degrees North and longitude 86.3 degrees East today.
It was around 1300km South of Kolkata. It is moving with a speed of around 6km per hour during the first 6 hours. At present it is in very favorable weather conditions, sea surface temperatures are warm around 31 to 32 degrees. Equatorward and poleward outflow are also excellent.
Vertical wind shear is low to moderate around 20 to 35 kmph.
Therefore, we expect that the cyclone will further intensify into a very severe cyclone soon. At present, the cyclone is tracking towards the north and it will continue to move in a northerly direction for another 24 hours.
Thereafter, it is expected to recurve in NNE direction and the landfall seems to be over Bangladesh around the evening of May 21st. Wind speed at the time of landfall is expected to be around 140 -150 kmph in a gust it may reach 170 kmph.
Updated on May 16, 2020 6:00 PM IST:
The deep depression in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a cyclonic storm. The maiden cyclone, cyclone Amphan, of this season is centered around 10.5N and 86.4E, about 650km ESE (East South East) of Chennai. The system remains in favorable environmental conditions and will shortly intensify further to a severe cyclonic storm. The storm outflow and motion are in phase for rapid development. The circular dense overcast (CDO) is clearly seen with rain bands wrapping around the circulation. The wave height is now expected to be about 12 feet.
The storm will now move northward for about 48 hours and then NNE (North North East) and intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm during this period. Landfall is expected on May 19th late night or 20th morning, Southeast of Kolkata, subject to revision. The storm will have catastrophic damaging potential with extremely heavy rains and high-velocity winds, along with and off the coast of Odisha and West Bengal. Exercise absolute caution and alert for the next 5 days to meet any exigency.
Updated on May 16, 2020 11:30 AM IST: Depression in Bay of Bengal intensified to Deep Depression
The depression in the Bay of Bengal has intensified to a deep depression, centered around 10.5N and 86.8E. The system continues to be in a favorable environment and is likely to burgeon to a significant cyclone in the next few hours, earlier than expected. Extremely organized features of cloud configuration with spirals to the north and feeder streams in the south, suggestive of rapid intensification. The storm is likely to have dense overcast circular mass shortly, again indicative of speedy development.
The deep depression is presently located about 850km SSE of Visakhapatnam and 1100 km south of Paradip, Odisha. The system will move northwest and reach abeam Chennai, keeping a safe distance of about 600km by this evening, as a developed cyclonic storm. Thereafter, it is likely to move northward and intensify to a severe cyclonic storm in the subsequent 24 hours. The storm has the potential to add two more grades to its intensity, very severe cyclonic storm, and extremely severe cyclonic storm, before making landfall, tentatively on May 19th night or 20th morning. These timelines are subject to revision and more authentic forecast can be expected after 24 hours.
There is a high probability that the cyclone is heading for West Bengal. Also, the storm will be bracing coastal Odisha with high-velocity winds and heavy rainfall commencing May 17th night onward. Gopalpur, Puri, Paradip, Chandbali, and Balasore need to be on high alert to face storm fury. In West Bengal, Digha, Contai, Diamond Harbour, Kolkata, and 24 South Pargana will fall in the close striking range of the cyclone.
Adverse weather activity in association with the storm is going to last four days (17-20 May). The available time frame is at a premium, especially in view of 'lockdown' in most parts. Advise adopting security measures and precautions. Be watchful and stay safe.
