Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over the Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB ), an invest area of low pressure has appeared over the region. The area of convection is centred around 6.1 Degree North and 93.4 Degree East, about 600 km south of Port Blair. Environmental analysis reveals deep flaring with a warm sea surface in excess of 30 degrees and weak vertical wind shear (< 25 kmph). Low pressure is likely to remain stationary for the next about 36 hours. Thereafter, the poleward outflow will trigger rapid consolidation. Depression is likely to form during the later part of the day on 09th May and quickly intensify to a tropical storm on 10th May.
There is still no consensus amongst the numerical models about the track and intensity of the storm. Though, the initial assessment favours the storm to move over the central Bay of Bengal. It is likely to travel northwestward first and recurve later towards the northeast. During this process, the cyclone may come closer to North Odisha and West Bengal coast. Bangladesh remains extremely vulnerable to the fury of the storm.
Wind pattern prevailing in the higher levels (above 30,000 feet), popularly called ' steering current ' remains the decisive factor for storm movement. It also gets influenced by a westerly trough, if any, associated with western disturbance to accelerate recurvature of the storm. More clarity is anticipated after the storm gets conceived as a depression over the open waters of BoB. The next 24 hours become resolute in delivering a verdict on cyclone Mocha.