There is only a fortnight left for the country to observe some more active Monsoon conditions, after which the four-month long Monsoon season in India will come to an end.
This has already raised concerns amongst weathermen who are keeping an eye on the cumulative rainfall deficit, which currently stands at 11% - a condition that could be termed as drought in meteorological terms. The most essential condition amongst other weather parameters to declare a drought is that the rainfall deficiency should be more than 10%.
However, the first week of September had raised hopes of the cumulative deficit improving and becoming normal due to some very good rain observed in most parts of the country, particularly North India. The deficit which was 15% on 3rd of September had dropped to 14% on 4th September. It slipped further to 12% on 6th of September but after that it stagnated and remained close to 11%.
Notably, rainfall during September is the lowest with monthly average being 173 mm out of which the country has already received 2/3rd (103 mm) of rainfall. The daily average rain also decreases during this month and stays close to 6 mm. Therefore any further decrease in rainfall will only push the deficit up marginally. In worst case scenario, where the daily rainfall is nil the deficit will increase only by decimal points. So there is high chance of the deficit stagnating and staying close to 11% for the next one week.
But, if there is good rain for the next few days the deficit could drop drastically. However, that does not seem to be the case for now.
