Skymet weather

Cumulative rainfall deficiency stagnates, recovery chances remote

September 1, 2014 12:07 PM |

Farm fieldSouthwest Monsoon rainfall over the country remained highly deficit in June and below normal in July. Consequently, month of August inherited a cumulative deficiency of 22%. Courtesy some good rains over Northeast India and along the west coast, the deficit as of 29th August stood at 18.2%. A substantial portion of these heavy rains may not be called `productive` as most of it either ran down the slopes of Meghalaya to Bangladesh or resulted in flood like situation due to swelling of rivers , particularly in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Assam.

Overall, there is no big recovery witnessed even in August, wherein the month as such remains deficit by 11.3% as on 29th August, 2014. 7 out of 29 days of August observed rainfall in excess of daily average whereas, rest of 22 days, it remained deficient. The surplus rainfall on these 7 days was also mostly confined to Northeastern parts at locations like Cherrapunji, Shillong, Pasighat and few other stations along the western coast. Most parts of Central and Northern India observed arid conditions and remained devoid of any significant activity.

Daily average and actual rainfall figures for the country in the last few days are given below:

Date        Average R/F(mm) Actual R/F(mm) Cumulative RF Deficiency
16Aug 9.1 9 16%
17Aug 8.5 5.5 17%
18Aug 8.2 3.3 17%
19Aug 8.1 4.7 18%
20Aug 7.9 4.1 18%
21Aug 8.0 3.3 18%
22Aug 8.2 6.1 19%
23Aug 8.3 8.3 18%
24Aug 7.9 5.6 18%
25Aug 7.5 6.7 18%
26Aug 7.2 6.7 18%
27Aug 7.6 5.6 18%
28Aug 7.4 6.8 18%

This goes on to explain the subdued rainfall over the country in the last fortnight or so. Projected rainfall for the month appears to be less than the normal. This will earn the season, a distinction of having a shortfall in all the three months of June, July and August. Such occasions are not very common to find on records. They are also indicative of season remaining deficit by a sizeable margin, possibly exceeding 10%, which is an essential condition to be fulfilled for drought.






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