The uncanny behavior of the Monsoon - being confined largely to Northeast India and West Bengal – is one of the reasons behind the cumulative deficit of Monsoon in India.
Monsoon made a sluggish start due to which the overall deficit till the middle of June stood at 45%. Thereafter, some good showers in the Northeast and West Bengal reduced the deficit to about 36% by the third week of June. But it again started to mount due to lack of rain in other parts of the country.
The current deficit of 43% is very large and is being observed after a long gap. Even in the worst drought year of 2009, the deficit was 47%, which speaks volumes about how the month of June has been this year in terms of Monsoon rain and what impact it is going to have on our economy.
Subdivision Deficit
In central parts of the country that include Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and west Uttar Pradesh, the deficit is 60-80%. Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions in the country 31 are deficit or scanty. Even 5 of them - Assam & Meghalaya, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and Andaman and Nicobar Islands – that are considered normal are facing a deficit of 10-15%, except for Sub Himalayan West Bengal, which is 14% excess.
July forecast
Though, there has been reports of Monsoon rain picking up in July, Skymet Meteorology Division in India differs from it as rain starved areas of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh do not look to experience significant rain during the first ten days of July.
And if there is no good rain in the country from 10th to 20th July then we are in for some big trouble as Monsoon will not be able to cover the average rainfall of 29 cm observed during this month.