The Monsoon season in India lasts for four months and has a major impact on the country’s agriculture and economy. During this period, however, the country usually witnesses what is termed as the break-Monsoon period. During this period, Monsoon rains over the core region of the country go very weak. This notable decline in rainfall lasts for 3 days or more.
Break-Monsoon period is usually witnessed in the months of July and August. But the month of August is most prone to ‘breaks’. These are either short breaks or in some cases, extremely long breaks. During break-Monsoon, the Monsoon trough shifts closer to the foothills in the North. Also, any significant weather system is missing from the Bay of Bengal as well as the Arabian Sea.
Heavy rainfall is observed over the foothills and Northeast India. Even Peninsular India receives some good amounts of rain during this period. But remaining parts of the country remain relatively dry with very little or no rain.
Interestingly though, this year during Monsoon, no ‘break’ period has been observed so far. Monsoon rains did lose some steam on a couple of occasions, but the decline wasn’t sufficient for it to be called a break-Monsoon period. Excess rainfall was observed in the month of June when Monsoon is establishing its hold over the Indian sub-continent. Then, during the first week of July, intensity of rainfall went down for a few days. Also, mid-July, weak rainfall was recorded but all these instances did not amount to a break-Monsoon period.
Currently, the Monsoon trough has shifted closer to the foothills and is likely to settle there for 2 to 3 days. But even then, pockets in the country have been receiving moderate to heavy rainfall on a consistent basis. With the Monsoon trough residing close to the foothills, scattered on and off heavy rainfall is likely to continue over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. Other regions where heavy rainfall will be observed during this period include Northeast India, Sikkim, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal.
As of now, no clear signs of an approaching break-Monsoon period are visible. In the month of September, when Southwest Monsoon begins to withdraw, break-Monsoon is not witnessed. Also, in another 3 days, a new system is likely to emerge in the Bay of Bengal which will again cause rainfall activity as it moves inland. Thus there’s a very good chance that we won’t be observing a typical break-Monsoon period this year.
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