Monsoon in India has been an underperformer in 2014 so far. National cumulative rainfall deficiency is still maintained at 11 per cent with an increasing trend. As the Southwest monsoon heads towards the withdrawal phase, country is observing a sharp decline in rain over the last week.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the rainfall activity has declined by almost 25% to 30% against the daily average rainfall. September 14 witnessed a deficit of 32 per cent, while it was 26 per cent for September 15 and 32 per cent for September 16, respectively. Let us have a look at the weather forecast for the country over the next 48 hours.
Northwest Region: The region, including the hilly areas, has been experiencing clear weather sky for the past 24 hours with no major rainfall activity. According to Skymet, there are also no indicators for any significant rain in next 48 hours over the region. The overall situation suggests the commencement of withdrawal of Southwest monsoon in India.
Central Region: Central parts of India have also been observing similar weather conditions in past few days. Though Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have witnessed light showers at few stations, most of the stations have remained dry. As we enter into the second half of September, the region is witnessing an anticyclonic pattern of wind flow, especially in Madhya Pradesh.
East and Northeast Region: According to Skymet, the region has been witnessing scattered rainfall activity for the past week and similar weather conditions are expected to prevail over next few days. However, the Northeast region will witness an increase in rainfall activity in coming two to three days, as the typhoon Kalmaegi is likely to reach Myanmar region, which is in the proximity of Northeast. Hence, we can expect some moderate rain in some pockets, particularly in Meghalaya.
Southern Region: This region has been observing light rain over the last two to three days. As per Skymet, the region will continue with the similar pattern for the coming day as well. Coastal parts such as Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and some interior pockets will receive goods showers of moderate intensity. This activity is in association with the monsoon low pressure, which is marked over west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal parts of Andhra Pradesh. We are also expecting light showers along the west coast for the next two-three days.
