Heavy rainfall is likely to commence today onward for the states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The wet spell with intermittent moderate to heavy rain and thundershower will last till 24thOctober. Most of the weather activity will take place during evening and night with varied intensity. Interior parts of Tamil Nadu and northern half of Kerala will be more vulnerable for intense thunderstorm with lightening and strong winds.
Northeast Monsoon is yet to set in over South Peninsula. As a precursor to the main stream easterly winds of monsoon, a cyclonic circulation is marked over Gulf of Mannar and Sri Lanka in the equatorial region. an easterly wave also moves in tandem, across Tamil Nadu and Kerala. As such, these are slow moving systems and will therefore spend considerable time affecting weather conditions over these 2 states and neighborhood.
State of Kerala has already been ravaged by unparalleled furious weather between 11th and 17thOctober. Overflowing water bodies and incessant rains resulted landslides in the mountainous region. Breach of embankments by most rivers spelled trouble for many riparian pockets down the lane on either bank.
Weather conditions improved on 18th and 19th October and facilitated relief operation. The catastrophic magnitude of the downpour, aided by enormous flow of speedy water and release of surplus from the dams and reservoirs compounded the problem and scale of disaster.
Just on the heels of recovery, the fresh spell beginning today will surely cast shadow for the relief agencies. Already saturated soil, with inundation and stagnant pool of knee deep waters at many places will find difficult to accommodate the fresh spell of rains across the state. This spell may not be as heavy with large spread as the previous one but it is going to get prolonged and spill over to the next week.
Both, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are rain surplus so far in October by respective margins of 135% and 52% respectively. The expected rains over the next 6-7 days will increase these limits further and likely to go in to record breaking month. Northeast Monsoon is also at the doorsteps and may commence anytime around middle of next week.