Month of August has remained rain deficit throughout so far. The last one week was perpetual offender with shortfall in excess of 40% on daily basis. It registered hat trick of -46% for 3 consecutive days on 14th, 15th and 16th August. On half of the occasions( 8days), the deficiency was 40% or more. Overall, the 1st half of month reflects a poor picture and the seasonal rainfall is less by 9%(51mm).
July and August are the core monsoon months contributing 62% of the seasonal rainfall. July is the highest bidder with 285.3mm and closely followed by August with 258.3mm. The long period average (LPA) of monsoon season with 880.6mm rainfall banks heavily on its performance during July and August. The opening month June had given a good start and ended with a surplus of 10%. However, these initial gains were consumed due to long break during first 10 days of July. Despite recovery during the following 2 weeks, the month ended with a shortfall of 7%. The 1st half of the season as such finished with zero-zero by recording 449mm rainfall against the average of 452mm.
Month of August started on a poor note and the rainfall deficiency kept mounting. The 1st half of month(01Aug-16Aug) has received 96mm rainfall against the normal figure of 144mm. Overall shortfall of 33% so far during this period is considered critical, specially for the central parts and south peninsula. The surplus of respective homogenous regions have largely been consumed and the central region has slipped to a shortfall in excess of 10%.
There are signs of marginal recovery during this week. A low pressure area is marked over Northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal parts of South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh. This weather system will move westnorthwest across central parts covering Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The peripheral reach of this low pressure will influence weather conditions over West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi and Haryana. Northeast region also will get impacted with heavy rain and thundershowers. The complete weather activity will keep shifting from east to west and last for nearly one week. This wet spell is assuring hopes of recovery, more so over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
