Month of August finally recorded surplus daily rainfall yesterday. Pan India rainfall of 8.6mm was recorded against the daily normal of 8.0mm on 18thAugust. So far, the daily measurement was below the normal continuously from 01st to 17thAug. Total of 110.4mm rain has been recorded against the normal of 159.9 between 01-18Aug, resulting a huge deficiency of 31%.
Rainfall records were poorest between 11th and 16thAug when the shortfall was in excess of 40% on consecutive days. This has been the poorest August on record and will go down in the history unless there is sufficient recovery in the remaining days of the month.
The maiden low pressure area of August earlier crossed Odisha coast and is now marked as cyclonic circulation over Chhattisgarh and neighborhood. This will move to central Madhya Pradesh tomorrow and further to north Madhya Pradesh in the subsequent 24 hours. These conditions will help keep the monsoon trough nearly in its normal position. Fairly widespread rainfall activity is expected over eastern and central parts of the country in the next 72 hours.
Weather belt will also reach parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab during this period. Thereafter, the rainfall activity will be focused more along the Indo Gangetic plains and some interior parts of south peninsula. Normal or above normal rainfall is expected on daily basis till 22ndAug and may reduce later on.
Another cyclonic circulation or possibly a fresh low pressure is likely over Bay of Bengal, off South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 27/28th August. Though, this weather system will be relatively mild but still good enough to drive monsoon rains over southern and central parts of the country. Month of August is not expected to make any astounding recovery. However, the current wet spell, followed by another one during fag end of the month may save it from a disastrous core monsoon month.
