Weather activity over North India in winter is largely driven by the western disturbance. Mountains always remain more susceptible to inclement weather and the plains invariably get the remnant effect. The weather activity remains confined to the hills on many occasions and the plains get spared. However, by far, the other way around is not true. The upcoming rainy spell on the weekend will be more exclusive to the plains and lesser extent to the mountains.
The winter rains for North India on the weekend will be a largely plains-driven phenomenon. The main trigger will be a cyclonic circulation forming over Rajasthan. This, of course, will be accelerated by an upper air westerly system but the hills will remain aloof to any disturbing weather activity, as happened in the last two bouts of snowfall derailing normal life.
The hilly region across the board is not likely to have any significant weather activity for the next three days, between 08th and 10th Jan 2025. When, the sky opens up on the 10th and 11th of January, more so on the second day, for the plains of North India, the weather activity will be limited to some parts of Uttarakhand and a few localized stations of Himachal Pradesh. Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh are likely to remain fair during this period. The activity is likely to be rather mild for the eastern parts of Himachal Pradesh and the western half may remain without the rain and snow. The more vulnerable pocket will be the Garhwal Division of Uttarakhand and the Kumaon hills have large gaps in the weather activity. Also, this will be just a day-long activity on 11thJan and get limited to the farther areas along the China border, the next day.
Weather conditions are likely to become better for the mountains on 12th Jan. Broad clearance is likely for the region over the subsequent 5-6 days. Cold wave conditions are expected to grip the Kashmir Valley during this period.