We are approaching the onset date of Southwest Monsoon over the mainland of India. Kerala could start receiving good showers in next couple of days.
This year the Monsoon current made an early onset and reached the Andaman Sea and parts of Bay of Bengal on May 16, four days before the scheduled date. Thereafter, Southwest Monsoon covered some more parts of the Bay and reached the southernmost tip of Sri Lanka by May 21.
Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM)
At present the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is passing through 5.0°N/79.0°E, Hambantota (Sri Lanka), 10.0°N/86.0°E, 13.0°N/89.0°E and 18.0°N/95.0°E.
Conditions look favourable for its further advancement over Maldives, southeast Arabian Sea, Comorin region and some more parts of south and central Bay of Bengal.
Onset of Monsoon
The scheduled date for the onset of Monsoon over Kerala is June 1, an error margin of 4 days is always taken for granted. As of now, Skymet predicts a slightly early onset around May 30.
Monsoon's first surge over Kerala will be mild and its advancement will be slow in the initial phase. GP Sharma, vice-president of meteorology at Skymet, believes that the onset over Kerala will not begin with heavy showers. However, rain recorded during this particular phase will not have any correlation with Monsoon rains obtained during the rest of the season.
Generally, Monsoon brings substantial rain just as it ushers in. Northeast and South India contributes the maximum amount of rain in June. Looking at the current situation we can say that entire Peninsular India will have poorer rains in the initial days. In fact, the progress of Monsoon over Peninsular India is expected to be delayed by a week.
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