With Skymet Meteorology Division announcing early arrival of the Southwest Monsoon in India on Wednesday, the present weather condition indicates that it could commence over southeast Bay of Bengal in the next 48 hours.
A low level cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over north Andaman Sea off Arakan Coast towards the weekend. This feature will invoke the monsoon current and help it to establish over Bay Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea by 20th May. Monsoon clouds, a support feature have already appeared covering south Bay of Bengal and neighbouring Indian Ocean.
Prior to the onset, the cross equatorial flow generally strengthens and thereafter the strong southwesterly winds sweep across Kerala coast, announcing the arrival of Monsoon. As per Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the Southwest Monsoon in Kerala is likely to commence from 28th May, three days before the scheduled date of onset.
The Southwest Monsoon is expected to be below the normal average this year. In April, Skymet Meteorology Division in India had released its Monsoon foreshadow for 2014, where it confirmed the coming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ at 94% (error margin of ± 4%) of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
Photograph by By Shajiarikkad
