Climate Prediction Center-NOAA Finally Announce Commencement of La Nina: BoM Differs Opinion

January 14, 2025 2:09 PM | Skymet Weather Team

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC ), the forecasting wing of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has finally announced the commencement of La Nina conditions. The ENSO Alert System of the agency has changed the status from La Nina ‘Watch’ to La Nina ‘Advisory’ since yesterday. The agency states that equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. The agency adds that La Nina conditions are present and are expected to persist through Feb-Apr 2025 (59% chance) and a transition to ENSO-Neutral is likely during Mar-May 2025 (60% chance).

The Nino 3.4 index, the marker index for the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) has breached or exceeded the threshold mark of -0.5°C for the fourth successive week. The latest value of the index is -0.7°C, the same as last week. The mean value of the ONI for the last 12 weeks works out to -0.47°C, a shade lower than the official threshold mark of -0.5°C. The other two indices Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 in the east-central Pacific have shown slight warming, not an ideal condition for declaring La Nina.

As per CPC prediction, La Nina will have a very short stint and may remain weak, as well. ENSO-Neutral conditions are predicted for the quarter Mar-Apr May, during the Northern Hemispheric spring season. Neutral conditions are likely to persist for the remaining period of the forecast. However, there is a little disagreement with the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia on the evolution of the La Nina event. The Bureau considers that the ENSO in the tropical Pacific remains neutral. The Bureau opines that, while many of the indicators have recently met the threshold for La Nina, they have not been sustained for the levels or duration sufficient to warrant La Nina status.

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