Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh have practically remained dry this winter season, so far. The region had witnessed light snow in December but remained limited to higher reaches. Kashmir Valley has literally observed dry conditions, both in December 2023 and January 2024, as well. Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh were snow deficit by 79% in December and totally dry during January so far.
Chillai Kalan is a forty-day period of intense cold in Kashmir Valley. It is the coldest part of winter starting from 21st Dec to 29th Jan every year. Chillai Kalan comprises the harshest part of winters during which nights are very chilly and day temperatures also thrive in single digits, at times low single digits for days together. The minimum temperature invariably hovers below the freezing point. The snow that falls during this period freezes and lasts longer. This becomes a special attraction for visitors to witness live snow or stacked one. It is this snow which adds to the glaciers of the valley and replenishes the perennial reservoirs that feed the rivers, streams and lakes in Kashmir during summer months. Any snowfall after Chillai Kalan does not last long and melts away too soon.
The entire Kashmir Valley is witnessing harsh cold, albeit completely dry. Srinagar has recorded sub-zero minimum temperatures for the last month, with the lowest being under 5°C on a few occasions. Taps and pipelines have frozen, and Dal Lake also has a layer of ice, which is frozen fairly deep. Adventure activities like skiing have taken a hit from the absence of snow. Crops are withering because of inadequate water and snow over the entire region. River Jhelum level has dropped to the lowest without the promising rise, anytime soon.
A weak western disturbance is approaching the higher hills sometime tomorrow and clear the region on 18th Jan. Yet another shallow system will arrive on 20th Jan and stay for a similar duration. These are very mild systems and do not have the potential to trigger rain and snow in the lower and mid reaches. The earliest hope for an active system is only after Republic Day towards the fag end of the month.