So far Monsoon 2016 has been rain deficit to the tune of 22% and this might edge to 30% in the next few days. However, most of the subdivisions of Maharashtra and Peninsular India have received either normal or excess rains. Only Vidarbha has received poor rains in June.
The Monsoon pattern will be reversed shortly. All thanks to the weather system brewing up in the Bay of Bengal. It will be responsible for carrying the Monsoon current forward, reviving Monsoon rains over Peninsular India. Any time after June 18, Mumbai could be greeted by Monsoon rains as well. In the same breath, Monsoon will cover southern parts of Gujarat. Actually, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO - it’s a wave of clouds and rain in the equatorial belt, that circumnavigate the globe in the equatorial region) is going to pass over the Indian ocean region. It generally rains for about 10 days when it is in the respective region. I expect it to stimulate good rains from the second half of June.
As far as the eastern arm is concerned, it has advanced to a great extent. Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and Northeast India have been receiving very heavy showers. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is now passing through Gangtok in the east.The weather conditions look conducive for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some parts of Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar during next couple of days. Thereafter, both the eastern and western arm will move together to carry Monsoon 2016 towards the northern parts of the country.
The normal onset date of Monsoon in Delhi is June 29 and the current will possibly meet the scheduled date with an error margin of 3 days in the national capital. It becomes quite sluggish before covering the last post of West Rajasthan and adjoining Kutch. Monsoon generally does not cover this part before July 7.
In our first Monsoon forecast for 2016, we had predicted Monsoon to enter Mumbai between June 12 and 15. Thereafter, it was expected to become sluggish. The western arm did become sluggish, but left Mumbai behind.
Some people were upset with our Mumbai forecast, especially on Twitter. Thus I take it as my ardent responsibility to explain my followers and weather enthusiasts. Mumbaikars woke up to a rainy morning on June 11 that indicated the coming of Monsoon but the rains did not persist for long. Nevertheless, we all need to understand that weather forecasting at times turns out to be a gamble played with all the right cards.
The Arabian Sea weather system, which was responsible for ushering in Monsoon in Kerala and Coastal Karnataka died its death in the sea itself. We expected it to carry the Monsoon current further to Konkan, Goa and Mumbai. The system remained active for quite some time but failed to reach Mumbai. There was an anti-cyclonic feature over the sea, providing divergence in the lower levels and finally suppressed the weather system in the Arabian Sea.
Ending on a positive note I would like to repeat that Monsoon would now make a thumping arrival in Mumbai. In fact, entire Maharashtra will receive good showers. Fingers crossed.
Featured image credit - voanews.com
Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com