Folks, from here on every Monday, I will be posting my views on how I expect the Monsoon to behave in the next week and my personal views on how it is progressing. So here goes; The Monsoon has made early onset over the Andaman by four days on May 16, giving good amounts of rain over the region. Since then, the advancement of the Monsoon has been timely.
The onset of Monsoon over Kerala is likely at the end of this month. But this onset is not going to be as strong as we had initially expected. It is weak. For the first few days in June, Monsoon will be confined to extreme southern parts only. The further progress of the Monsoon over Peninsular India is expected to be delayed by a week. Accordingly, the onset of Monsoon over Mumbai and Kolkata is likely to be delayed by one week. I think the Monsoon will make onset over Mumbai by 15/16 June as opposed to the normal date of June 10. In Kolkata, I would also put the onset date around the same time as opposed to normal date of June 10. Initially the Arabian sea branch of the Monsoon looks stronger than the Bay of Bengal branch.
On the other hand, the second half of June looks more promising. A series of Monsoon lows might start forming in the Bay of Bengal by mid June causing good amounts of Monsoon rain over most parts of Central and East India. By the third week of June, the onset is likely to be complete over East MP, Maharashtra, Odisha, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Bihar.
It should be noted that weak Monsoon over a region for the first few days has no correlation with the overall performance of Monsoon. Simply speaking, Monsoon 2015 is expected to be normal. Our forecast remains 102% of the LPA. And we expect June to be between normal and above normal.
North/ North West and East central India (J&K, HP, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, UP, Uttarakhand, Bihar and Jharkhand) will get some relief from the ongoing heat wave between May 30 and June 2, when a series of summer thunderstorms are expected to hit the region.
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