The northern mountains have had sporadic snowfall, so far. The spells have so far been inconsistent, inadequate and truant. The hilly states have large seasonal deficiencies. The states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are reeling with a shortfall of over 90% and the union territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh are a shade better with a deficit of over 70%, so far. Snowfall is the lifeline of these parts. Consistent snow cover is needed for horticulture-apple orchards. Snow also replenishes the soil moisture, so important for the vegetable and other crops. The long absence of snowfall threatens water conservation and water bodies, including glaciers.
Finally, a decent western disturbance is likely to arrive by late tomorrow, raising hopes for a revival of the echo system. The weather system is more important, as it is coupled with a well-marked induced circulation over the plains of North India. The combined influence of western disturbance and induced circulation always better the chances and raises the intensity and spread of weather activity, more so, for the hills.
The western disturbance will arrive late tomorrow and clear early on 10th Dec 2024. Simultaneous impact on the plains and hills enhances comprehension of the weather systems. The good thing is that all the three northern states like Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakhand will have their share of activity. However, Kashmir Valley and the mid reaches of Himachal Pradesh will witness the season’s first decent and modest snowfall.
All the popular destinations above the elevation of about 7000 feet may have a brief spell of snow. The mountain slopes at and above 10,000 feet will stand better chances of modest snowfall. The likely favourite locations for snowfall will be: Pahalgam, Gulmarg, Kupwara, Kokernag, Keylong, Kufri and Lahaul-Spiti. Places like Dalhousie and Manali have only an outside chance to witness flakes of snow. Popular resorts like Srinagar, Shimla, Nainital, Mussoorie and Mukteshwar may have rain and thundershowers and still wait for the first snow. The foothills and lower hills like Udhampur, Katra, Jammu, Dharamshala, Chamba, Mandi, Dehradun, Pantnagar and Pithoragarh will also observe rainfall on these two days. The main roads and arteries, at and above the elevation of 10,000 feet will have the risk of snow accumulation, disrupting traffic and connectivity.
