Break Monsoon Conditions To End Soon, August 2nd Half Promising Good Rains

Weak monsoon conditions have prevailed in the month of August over large parts of the country. Central and southern parts bore the brunt  and consumed their early gains of  1^st half of the season. With the monsoon trough running practically along the foothills at height of 3000’ and above, the conditions are akin to ‘break monsoon’. Accordingly, the rains have nearly dried up along the West Coast, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and South Peninsula, outside Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tail Nadu.

Halfway through the season, the monsoon rainfall was near normal registering  449mm against 452mm between 01^st June and 31^stJuly. However, subdued performance during August on all days raised the shortfall to 6%. The month of August so far is deficit by 27.6mm and the seasonal shortfall stands at 31mm so far. Weak monsoon conditions will last till 15^thAugust and recovery is expected thereafter.  During this phase, rainfall activity gets confined to foothills and adjoining plains of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, North Bengal, Northeast India, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Typical break monsoon conditions are expected till 14^thAugust and reverse thereafter. A trough is likely to form off East Coast, extending from Bangladesh to Andhra Pradesh. Under the influence of this, a cyclonic circulation will form over Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) on 15^thAugust. This weather system will become more marked and also move inland in the subsequent 48hr.  This may further travel deep over central parts  and later cover northern parts of the country.

This will be the 1^st monsoon system of August, promising revival of seasonal activity. The monsoon trough will shift southward bringing the eastern end over Bay of Bengal and later the middle portion also likely to be dragged over the central parts of the country.  Intense rainfall over Northeast India will ease out and swap with eastern and central states like Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The countrywide deficit is also expected to make partial recovery during the 3^rd week of the month.