Mix of ‘break’ and weak monsoon conditions have prevailed for the last one week. Monsoon trough remains north of its normal position and close to the foothills of Himalayas on all these days. These conditions are likely to continue till 15th August. Rainfall activity will remain limited to the foothills of Punjab, Haryana, Uttrakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sikkim, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Northeast India.
In addition to the above pockets, moderate showers also spill over to the plains of Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal. Break monsoon conditions favour scattered showers over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Western, central, other southern parts and the Western Ghats mostly remain devoid of any significant weather activity. Northern mountains become susceptible to incidents of localized cloud bursts, more so, for the lower and mid reaches of Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand.
Weak monsoon conditions have consumed the accumulated surplus of July and the season stands at zero-zero on 09th Aug. Long period average has started slipping in to negative (-0.4%) on 10th Aug. Daily pan India rainfall is likely to remain below normal till 16th Aug. Consequently, the seasonal rainfall may drop to 95% of LPA by 16th August.
Fresh monsoon circulation is likely to form overhead Bay of Bengal on 15th August 2023. It will persist over same region for about 48 hours. Possibly, a feeble low pressure area may form and this monsoon system will meander over the eastern parts covering West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand between 17th and 20th Aug. Fairly widespread moderate intensity rainfall is likely over this region during this period. Few showers are also likely to extend up to North Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and East Uttar Pradesh.
Fresh monsoon system is not likely to be strong enough to revive the monsoon conditions over the core areas of central, western and northern parts of the country. Weather system will remain mild and confined to eastern parts. The system is forming over Bay of Bengal at very unusual place and following equally variant track. The system will have a tendency to shift closer to the foothills of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Such a move will drag the monsoon trough once again close to the foothills. Western end of the trough, as such will remain stuck far north of its normal position. Therefore, emergence of fresh monsoon system may temporarily activate monsoon activity in a limited area between 16th and 20th Aug. Shifting of monsoon trough later along the foothills does not augur well for large-scale revival of monsoon over the country. Meteorological conditions developing over Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal states need to be monitored closely.