Monsoon activity will largely be confined to the northern plains and eastern states over the next week. The seasonal rains have been less than the normal over plains of North India, Indo-Gangetic plains, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. This wet spell may recover the deficit over most of these sub-divisions in the next week or so. Central and South Peninsula may take a break, except for parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, during this period.
The monsoon trough has been persisting in its near-normal position. On the surface, it passes through Ganganagar, Delhi, Gwalior, Satna, Daltonganj, Digha and thence Northeast Bay of Bengal. This is the main trigger for the active monsoon conditions. There are two cyclonic circulations embedded in the trough, which are helping to maintain the monsoon trough, without much oscillation. A cyclonic circulation over Northeast Rajasthan and another one over North Jharkhand and South Bihar have persistently marked for the last few days. These circulations are likely to be subsumed by the monsoon trough and an elongated east-west axis will run from Rajasthan to West Bengal for the next 5 days. This will keep the monsoon active to vigorous over many parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, in a staggered manner, during this week.
Rain and thundershowers are likely to be widespread over these parts with isolated heavy rainfall. These are the parts which need the monsoon rains, the most to cover the seasonal deficit incurred earlier. Notable among the states are Punjab and Bihar with respective shortfalls of 40% and 22% respectively. While Bihar may break even, the state of Punjab will still have to catch up with some discrepancies.
Rains are likely to continue till the weekend. Thereafter, the circulation over Northeast Rajasthan will shift over West Rajasthan on 17th Aug and cross over to the other side of the border, subsequently. The other circulation will get merged with the monsoon trough. Once, this happens, the monsoon trough will tend to shift northward, close to the foothills. Since the models lose accuracy after about 4-5 days, a fresh call will be taken to authenticate this forecast or a review, if necessary.
Image Courtesy: Telegraph India
