Extremely severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy has surfed the Arabian Sea for over one week. The storm started its voyage on 06th June as a depression and quickly upgraded to a severe cyclonic storm the next day on 07th June. After intensification to an extremely severe cyclonic storm on 11th June, slipped back to a very severe cyclonic storm on 12th June 2023. It is parked now over the deep ocean waters of the Northeast Arabian Sea.
The cyclone is centred around 21.6°N and 66.2°E, about 300km west-southwest of Naliya and a similar distance from Jakhau, the intended place of landfall.
The storm has been able to offset the vertical wind shear, without significant weakening. The storm is heading towards marginal environmental conditions with high wind shear, cooler sea surface, dry air entrainment and frictional effects of terrain. Tightly curved bands of clouds, as manifested in the satellite imagery, depict its strength.
The cyclone has moved very slowly in the last 6-8 hours. It is a very normal thing to slow down before recurving. The storm will commence its last leg shortly and move northeastward as against its earlier travel northwestward. The storm seems to have shifted away from the coast, a little more than assessed earlier. This has lessened the extreme fury over the coastal towns of Porbandar, Okha, Dwarka, Khambaliya and Jamnagar.
The cyclone will speed up a bit after recurvature towards the northeast. The landfall may get delayed to the late evening hours of tomorrow, 15th June. Biparjoy is likely to strike the coast of Kutch between Jakhau and Lakhpat as a very severe or at best a severe cyclonic storm. Coastal stations are likely to experience gusty winds in excess of 120kmh, accompanied by blinding rains. A deadly combination of winds and rains raises the damaging potential of the storm exponentially.
Precautionary measures have been taken by the state administration to minimize the losses. Ports have been shut, schools have been closed, transportation suspended and vulnerable sections of people shifted to safe shelters. The storm will damage the weak structures, kutcha houses, and tin rooftops along with flooding and inundation. Felling of trees is expected in large numbers and power lines may get snapped. Relief operations can commence only after the storm moves deep inside.