The cyclonic circulation over the North Bay of Bengal (BoB) will cross the coast to move inland shortly. Earlier, this weather system persisted as a cyclonic circulation over Southwest BoB, off the Andhra Pradesh coast. Later, this feature moved northward over West-Central BoB and finally over North BoB, off the Odisha coast. Cloud clusters are manifested over the sea, bracing the coastline of West Bengal, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. The weather system is unlikely to become a low-pressure area and will move inland, as it is, anytime soon. Active monsoon conditions are likely over eastern and central states for the next few days.
The monsoon trough is extending from central Rajasthan to Odisha, running across central Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The entire stretch of the monsoon trough is lying south of its normal position and is unlikely to change for the next 3-4 days. Moving cyclonic circulation from the BoB will get embedded in the monsoon trough and move along its axis, across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
Active to vigorous monsoon conditions are expected over these states, albeit in a staggered manner, shifting east to west. Peripherals of the trough will affect weather activity over West Bengal, Jharkhand and East Uttar Pradesh in the north and Telangana, Vidarbha and Marathwada in the southern sector. While moving westward, the monsoon trough is likely to shift northward under the influence of a western disturbance, arriving on the night of 8th July. The intense weather belt will shift to North Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, East Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh. This circulation will not shift any further to the west and move closer to the foothills of West Uttar Pradesh and Uttrakhand. Fairly widespread intense monsoon showers are likely all along the Indo-Gangetic plains, between the 10th and 15th of July. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Sub Himalayan West Bengal will be the main beneficiaries of prolonged wet spells.