Just a short breather and Bay of Bengal (BoB) is listed again to host another tropical storm, anytime next week. Earlier, cyclone Gulab appeared on 26thSeptember 2021 over north BoB, and struck Andhra Pradesh near Srikakulam. The storm stretched across central parts and reemerged again in the Arabian Sea later, as cyclone Shaheen. The cyclonic storm is likely to form around 13thOctober over central BoB and head for Andhra Pradesh in the subsequent 48hr.
As briefed earlier, a cyclonic circulation is expected to form over Gulf of Martaban and adjoining North Andaman Sea in the next 48hr. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to come up over same region on 11thOctober.
This feature will become well marked in the subsequent 24hr. During this period, the remnant of another tropical storm from South China Sea will move across Vietnam, Laos and Thailand and finally merge with the weather system over North Andaman Sea.
A tropical cyclone ‘Lionrock’ has already formed over South China Sea and is heading for Chinese province of Hainan, striking close to the most populous city of Haikou. Thereafter, the weakened storm will enter Gulf of Tonkin, gain strength and make a 2nd landfall over Vietnam.
The storm will weaken to a depression over the rugged and mountainous terrain and the remnants will finally reach Myanmar moving across Laos and Thailand. The merger with the pre existing system will energize the low pressure area and help cyclogenesis over central parts of BoB. Under favorable environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperature and low wind shear, the 1st cyclone of post monsoon season 2021, in the BoB will set the pace for an active stormy season for the Indian Seas.
Bay of Bengal has the past record of churning severe storms in the month of October. In 2013, an equivalent of category V hurricane (severest category on scale), cyclone Phailin struck Gopalpur (Odisha) in the evening on 12thOctober. This was the 1ststorm to do so in North Indian Ocean since cyclone Sidr in 2007.
In the following year also, an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) Hudhud battered East Coast. Cyclone Hudhud made landfall at Vishakhapatnam on 12Oct 2014 with a peak wind speed of 175kmh.
The next storm developing over Indian Seas will be named ‘Jawad’. This name comes from Saudi Arabia and the following storm, if any, will be named Asani by Sri Lanka. The warning notice need to be judiciously utilized in preparations to meet the exigencies of cyclone.
