Close on heels of storm Midhili, Bay of Bengal seems to be heading for yet another storm shortly. Meteorological conditions are shaping up fairly and squarely to host another storm in the basin, the fourth of this year for Bay of Bengal. Last storm Midhili struck Bangladesh on the last weekend and another cyclone in quick succession will keep India, Bangladesh and Myanmar on the tenterhooks for hazardous weather conditions.
North Indian Ocean cyclone season has no bounds but cyclones tend to form between April and December. Pre monsoon peak in May and post monsoon spike in November makes it most favourite months for cyclogenesis. Normally, on an average, about 4 storms form in a year in the Indian Seas. Anything more than five is taken as steep hike, attributable to warm sea surface temperatures. This will be the sixth storm of the year, 4th one for Bay of Bengal and the count may still go on.
There is no model consensus so far about the likely cyclone over Bay of Bengal. But, then it is very common to find such disagreement amongst the numerical models. Models take sometime to align for the ideal conditions and converge together for a broader assent. Another 48 hours will be needed to find majority acceptance.
This tropical storm will have its roots over Gulf of Thailand. A cyclonic circulation is marked over the Gulf and adjoining Malay Peninsula in the lower levels. All these perturbations need not necessarily culminate in to stronger systems and few of the get rather fizzle out. However, the geographical, climatological and environment is supportive of further accentuation, albeit at a slower pace. At best, under favourable conditions, the equatorial disturbance may enter the Andaman Sea on or after 25thNovember.
The weather systems with a history of origin from Gulf of Thailand and Malay Peninsula have the privilege of long sea travel. Therefore, these stand better chance to grow and become stronger. Any such system, at this time of the season has the potential to threaten coastline of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, with the last of these at least risk of getting ravaged. Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh become vulnerable for hazardous weather conditions on account of cyclone strike.
It is premature to assess and render precision forecast, so early. Area of influence need to be observed closely for next 48-72hours. Chances of a storm can not be ruled out and prudence demand preparations. As said earlier, the 4th storm of this year for Bay of Bengal, may knock very soon. If so, the storm will be named ‘Michaung’ and pronounced as ‘Migjaum’ as suggested by Myanmar.
