Bay of Bengal Cyclones Do Not Strike Indian Coast In April, Exceptions Not Ruled Out

Cyclone season has begun with the commencement of pre monsoon. March to May is considered the 1^st cyclone season for the Indian Seas, followed by post monsoon from October to December. Storms in the pre monsoon are less frequent and  intense vis-à-vis post monsoon. The statement comes with a caution that the storms are known to be notorious for defying norms of frequency, track and intensity over the Indian basins.

Arabian Sea is not favorite for cyclonic storms during March and April. No storms have formed that region since 2000.  However, the same is not true for the Bay of Bengal (BoB).  This basin is more active than the Arabian Sea during these 2 months. BoB has the history of hosting 6 cyclones in March since 1901, the recent one being during 1^st week of March 2022.

During April, the storms originate between 8°N and 13°N and east of 85°E, over Andaman Sea.  Initially these storms move northwest and north and later recurve to head for Myanmar and the next favorite being Bangladesh.  However, the Indian coastline can not be taken as completely safe. These storms have a history of straying, albeit rare, striking coastline right from Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh to Odisha and West Bengal. These storms have a track record of not showing up for a stretch of 6-7 years but on few other occasions appearing in 2 successive years.

In April, BoB did not witness any storm between 2000 & 2005  and again between 2010 and 2016.  Since the year 2000,  total of 5 storms have formed over BoB in April, with 3 of these Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) and the rest 2 were short and weak as just upgraded to Cyclonic Storm (CS). The first ESCS( MALA) formed in 2006 and ‘NARGIS’ followed in 2008. The last ESCS was ‘FANI’ in 2019, also the most severe, with a life span between 26Apr and 03^rd May.  The remaining 2 cyclonic storms were ‘BIJLI’ and ‘MAARUTHA’ in 2009 and 2017.  Out of these storms, MALA and NARGIS struck Myanmar and BIJLI made landfall in Chittagong, Bangladesh. MAARUTHA weakened over the open waters and therefore did not strike the coastline.  Most powerful and exceptional of these storms was FANI , the only cyclone to strike Indian coastline in April, since 2000. FANI was the worst tropical  cyclone to strike Odisha coast since Odisha cyclone of 1999, which struck near Puri, Odisha on 03^rdMay 2019.