The embedded cyclonic circulations in the northeasterly flow over Bay of Bengal (BoB) have finally joined together. A broad cyclonic circulation is now marked over Southeast and adjoining Central BoB. It is expected to consolidate further over the same area for the next 48 hours. Once organized, a low pressure area is likely to form over Central parts of BoB. Further prospects of this likely system are incomplete, as of now. ‘Wait & Watch’ period of about 3 days is envisaged for any firm prediction.
Number of tropical storms have come up around mid-October over BoB, with few of them in the recent past. Therefore, possibility of getting another storm can not be set aside. Albeit, formation of such a system is absolutely tentative and also inconclusive on further prospects, as on date. Withdrawal of southwest monsoon and ushering of seasonal northeasterly stream over most parts of Bay of Bengal surely provides a trigger, for any such eventuality.
Likely low pressure area over Central BoB is expected to meander over the region for 2-3 days. During this phase, the weather system will pick up strength and manifest sharply in the wind field and satellite imageries. Once the system prepares to intensify into a tropical storm, the entire eastern coastline comes under scanner of its impact. Odisha and West Bengal become more vulnerable than the rest of eastern shore. Second half of October does not spare even Bangladesh and Myanmar from a possible storm strike.
