Back To Back Western Disturbances Over North India, Inaugural Thunderstorm Of Pre Monsoon Likely

Pre Monsoon weather activity has been missing so far over North India, both for the mountains and plains as well. In the month of March, Northwest India remained highly deficit and recorded 5.2mm rainfall against the normal of 47.5mm.  Contribution from the plains was completely missing and fleeting spell of rain was recorded across the mountainous states.

Deficiency has grown further  during April with 1/3^rd of the month remaining absolutely dry. Conspicuously, the cumulative rainfall for the region between 01^st March -12^th April remains 5.2mm against the normal of 59.6mm. Plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh have endured soaring heat throughout April, so far. Kashmir valley experienced light rainfall during past 24hr and rest of the parts continued to wither.

Twist in the weather conditions is likely for the entire region. Back to back western disturbances are expected to move across the Western Himalayas during next 7 days. These weather systems will have support of induced circulation over the plains. Pooled effect of the dual systems, aided by the local heat, will trigger much awaited pre monsoon activity across the heterogenous terrain of mountains, foothills and plains.

1^st western disturbance has already arrived over Jammu & Kashmir. Induced circulation is marked over northern parts of Punjab and Haryana, with a trough extending across Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh. Rain and thundershowers are likely over the mountainous region between 13^th-15^th April, with intensity in the reducing order. Foothill and northern parts of Punjab, Haryana and  Rajasthan are likely to witness the opening spell of pre monsoon thunderstorm/ dust storm at some places. Squally weather activity may extend to Delhi and foothills of West Uttar Pradesh. For the plains, the activity will be mild and mostly occurring during late evening and night.

2^nd western disturbance is expected to reach Jammu & Kashmir on 17^thApril and slowly move across the hilly states till 21^stApril. Feeble induced circulation will accompany the main system. Peak activity for the hills is expected on 19^th and 20^thApril.  Expanse of this system will remain confined to the foothills and limited elsewhere. Amritsar, Jalandhar, Pathankot, Ropar, Chandigarh, Panchkula, Ambala, Karnal and Yamuna Nagar stand a chance of having thunderstorm with lightening and gusty winds on 19^th and 20^thApril.

Back to back western disturbances will offer some relief from the excruciating heat. Entire range of plains have suffered with prolonged spell of scorching heat, also encroaching the lower ranges of mountains.  During the interim period between the disturbances, mercury will rise to scale day temperatures above 40°C, at many places.