Unlike the beginning months, Monsoon is performing rather good in August so far. We are almost in the third week of August already. Till now, ample days with heavy rains have been seen this month. As a matter of fact, over the past five years, Monsoon has never been up to the mark during August.
Looking back at the data-
We see the last time August rains performed well was in 2012 when the rainfall performance was 2% excess than the normal figure. After 2012, Monsoon has been continually deficient for August since 2013.
Good rains in August this year means that the country is going to see a well-performing August after a total of five rain deficient years.
Within the first 20 days of August, India has received more than 230 mm rainfall which is 31% more than the normal for this period. Moreover, many rainfall records across the country have already been breached.
Moreover, going by the forecasters at Skymet, the month might end at a surplus of 15%. This can be the highest performing August in the last ten years.
The two months of July and August are the core Monsoon months in India. Rain failure in either month can mean a major deficit which can lead to serious rain deficiency towards the season end.
While July contributes to a total of 33% of Monsoon rains, August contributes 30% rains. Together both months, contribute to two-thirds of the total Monsoon rainfall.
August opened with a deficiency of 7% on the first day. The day-wise rainfall deficiency on August 12 was prevailing at -55%. From August 1 to 22, all days of the month have received above normal rains barring the two days of August 1 and 12.
Looking at the pan-India rainfall performance, we see that the August rains have impacted the rainfall figures immensely. As on August 10, the month was running rain excess by 49%. Till July end, pan-India was running deficient by a total of 9% for the season. However, on August 10, this deficiency got neutralized. Moreover, by August 16, surplus rains had already raised the pan-India rainfall excess to 2%.
Forecasting rains for the rest of August, we see that rains will remain below normal. A day or two might fare normal. Despite this, the month is expected to end on a total of 15% rain excess, the highest until the last ten years.
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Any information taken from here should be credited to Skymet Weather