The month of April has passed off without any cyclonic storms in the Indian Seas. This is the 4th consecutive year, without a tropical storm in April. The last storm forming in the Indian Sea ( Bay of Bengal) in April was Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm 'FANI'. The weather system appearing in the BoB intensified to a cyclonic storm on 27th April 2019 and became a very severe cyclonic storm on 30th April. Later, on 03rd May 2023, it made landfall over the Odisha coast near Puri as an extremely severe cyclonic storm at about 8 am in the morning.
Pre Monsoon season witnesses more storms over BoB than the Arabian Sea. Also, the month of May has a large probability of storm formation as compared to April. BoB remains a preferred basin for cyclones even during the month of May. Simultaneous occurrence of storms in the month of May, on either side of the coastline is not very common. Yes, in May 2021, an extremely severe cyclone 'Tauktae' emerged in the Arabian Sea and a very severe cyclonic storm 'Yaas' formed over the BoB. Earlier, a similar event was observed only in May 2010, when storm Laila formed over BoB and 'Bandu' and Phet formed over the Arabian Sea.
2011 and 2012 are the exceptions when no storm formed during the pre-monsoon season in the Indian Seas. The severe most storm of the recent past was Super Cyclone 'Amphan' in May 2020 striking West Bengal. The Arabian Sea has hosted only 3 tropical storms in the month of May, since 2011: Tauktae in 2021 and Sagar & Mekunu in 2018.
There is very little likelihood of any tropical storm coming up in the first half of May 2023. A weak area of convection is developing over the equatorial region, off Sri Lanka during 2nd week of May. Decreased wind shear and warm sea surface do remain the favourite for deep convection over that area. However, the low latitude and distant location of MJO do not augur well for accentuation. Therefore, this area will be kept under observation till mid-week for more clarity. The next storm in the Indian Seas, as and when it forms, will be named ' Mocha' to be pronounced as ' Mokha'.
