There are no currently active storms around the globe, anywhere over any ocean. Yes, the active stormy season is getting over for various active basins but still, there are no bounds as such, for the appearance of tropical storms in any of the major oceans, in the month of December. Indian seas, in any case, remain live to the phenomenon for the month and largely recede thereafter, to roll over to the pre-monsoon season.
The Indian seas have witnessed four cyclones this year so far. Three of these evolved over the Bay of Bengal, namely Remal, Dana and Fengal. The fourth one, Asna was in-situ development and later moved to the Arabian Sea. It means, the stats are highly biased this year and no storm has originated in the Arabian Sea, so far. The remnant of the last storm Fengal had entered in the Arabian Sea as a low-pressure area after striking Tamil Nadu but, has weakened and also moved away without any intensification. What next?
The month of December is synonymous with one odd storm in the Indian Seas. The last storm Fengal was a November storm and had weakened to a depression on the day one of December 2024. The month of December, if at all, has to open its own account.
From the data observation of the last six years, since 2018, the month of December has churned a storm in each year. It was only once in the Arabian Sea in 2019 and that too over the extreme western parts of the sea, next to Somalia, nearly inconsequential for India. Rest of the years, the storms evolved in the Bay of Bengal. Three things were peculiar to these storms: intensity was mild, originated in the first half of the month and struck North Tamil Nadu-South Coastal Andhra Pradesh. These storms were: Michaung (2023)-CAP, Mandous (2022)-Chennai, Jowad (2021)- weakened over the sea, Burevi (2020)- weakened over Gulf of Mannar, Pawan (2019)- Somalia, Phethai (2018)- CAP.
As of now, there is an equatorial disturbance over the extreme Southeast Bay of Bengal. This will move across the southern and central parts of the Bay of Bengal, remaining quite low in latitude, for the next 3-4 days. It will come closer to the eastern coast of Sri Lanka on 08th Dec 2024. It is likely to shift to the Southwest Bay of Bengal, off Tamil Nadu coast, and stay put till 11th Dec. The rainfall may increase substantially, but the perturbation will remain weak and unlikely to grow beyond a low-pressure stage. Such systems are very common during the northeast monsoon season, more so in December, affecting Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. No fresh storm is likely to come up in the Indian Sea during this month. It may break the earlier precedence, set in the last few years, to find a storm in the month of December.
