Tropical storm Rafael lashed the Cayman Islands in the Western Caribbean with strong winds and heavy rains. It is moving west-northwest and has crossed Jamaica and is expected to keep strengthening before it makes another landfall over Cuba, anytime soon. The hurricane will sail over favourable waters with sufficient heat potential and minimal vertical wind shear for another 48 hours. Briefly, the hurricane may weaken from Cat-II to Cat-I strength after hitting the Cuban landmass. It will regain strength to come back as Cat-II, before entering Gulf of Mexico.
Rafael is the 11th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the sixth named storm to slam into the US this season. There is no consensus, so far, amongst the models, about the likely track of this storm. The Gulf of Mexico has earlier been drubbed by three storms: Debby, Helene and Milton. The forecasters are warning more uncertainty than usual about, where the storm could go, once it reaches Gulf of Mexico. However, one thing is sure that the storm will loose its strength over gulf because of cooler waters. The US coastline may escape the extreme fury, normally associated with seasonal storms.
It is little too early to predict the hurricane path, which could change drastically, as it heads towards the US. One model expects Rafael to move north after hitting Cuba. The steering current favours the movement of the storm leaning more towards the eastern Gulf Coast. The other model differs large and expects the storm to make a harder westward turn in the Gulf. This scenario will weaken the storm and may take landfall over Northeast Mexico.
Despite the uncertainty, the storm has the potential of lashing heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied with strong howling winds, over Florida and the Southeast region. Even parts of Georgia and South Carolina will bear the risk of flooding rains. In any case, there is still some time for the storm to reach the Gulf Coast. A more reliable and precise forecast will need another 48 hours of close observation.